Home prices grew at a double-digit annual clip for the better part of two years spanning the second half of 2020 through 2022, a notable burst following a growing streak that spanned back to 2012. As mortgage rates climbed, home price growth flatlined, actually declining on an annual basis in early 2023 before an early-year dip in mortgage rates spurred enough buyer demand to reignite competition for still-limited inventory. Home prices began to climb again, and while they did not reach a new monthly peak, on average for the year we expect that the 2023 median home price will slightly exceed the 2022 annual median.
Nevertheless, even during the brief period when prices eased, using a mortgage to buy a home remained expensive. Since May 2022, purchasing the typical for-sale home listing at the prevailing rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 20% down payment meant forking over a quarter or more of the typical household paycheck. In fact, in October 2023, it required 39% of the typical household income and this share is expected to average 36.7% for the full calendar year in 2023. This figure has typically ranged around 21%, so it is well above historical average. We expect that the return to pricing in line with financing costs will begin in 2024, and home prices, mortgage rates, and income growth will each contribute to the improvement. Home prices are expected to ease slightly, dropping less than 2% for the year on average. Combined with lower mortgage rates and income growth this will improve the home purchase mortgage payment share relative to median income to an average 34.9% in 2024, with the share slipping under 30% by the end of the year.
After soaring during the pandemic, existing home sales were weighed down in the latter half of 2022 as mortgage rates took off, climbing from just over 3% at the start of the year to a peak of more than 7% in the fourth quarter. The reprieve in mortgage rates in early 2023, when they dipped to around 6%, brought some life to home sales, but the renewed climb of mortgage rates has again exerted significant pressure on home sales that is exacerbated by the fact that a greater than usual number of households bought homes over the past few years, and despite stories of pandemic purchase regret , for the most part, these homeowners continue to be happy in their homes.
This is consistent with what visitors to Realtor.com report when asked why they are not planning to sell their homes. The number one reason homeowners aren’t trying to sell is that they just don’t need to; concern about losing an existing low-rate mortgage is the top financial concern cited. Our current projection is for 2023 home sales to tally just over 4 million, a dip of 19% over the 2022 5 million total.
With many of the same forces at play heading into 2024, the housing chill will continue, with sales expected to remain essentially unchanged at just over 4 million. Although mortgage rates are expected to ease throughout the course of the year, the continuation of high costs will mean that existing homeowners will have a very high threshold for deciding to move, with many likely choosing to stay in place. Moves of necessity–for job changes, family situation changes, and downsizing to a more affordable market–are likely to drive home sales in 2024.
Even before the pandemic, housing inventory was on a long, slow downward trajectory. Insufficient building meant that the supply of houses did not keep up with household formation and left little slack in the housing market. Both homeowner and rental vacancy remain below historic averages . In contrast with the existing home market, which remains sluggish, builders have been catching up, with construction remaining near pre-pandemic highs for single-family and hitting record levels for multi-family .
Despite this, the lack of excess capacity in housing has been painfully obvious in the for-sale home market. The number of existing homes on the market has dwindled. With home sales activity to continue at a relatively low pace, the number of unsold homes on the market is also expected to remain low. Although mortgage rates are expected to begin to ease, they are expected to exceed 6.5% for the calendar year. This means that the lock-in effect, in which the gap between market mortgage rates and the mortgage rates existing homeowners enjoy on their outstanding mortgage, will remain a factor. Roughly two-thirds of outstanding mortgages have a rate under 4% and more than 90% have a rate less than 6%.
After almost a full year of double-digit rent growth between mid-2021 and mid-2022, the rental market has finally cooled down, as evidenced by the year-over-year decline that started in May 2023 . In 2024, we expect the rental market will closely resemble the dynamics witnessed in 2023, as the tug of war between supply and demand results in a mild annual decline of -0.2% in the median asking rent.
New multi-family supply will continue to be a key element shaping the 2024 rental market. In the third quarter of 2023, the annual pace of newly completed multi-family homes stood at 385,000 units. Although absorption rates remained elevated in the second quarter, especially at lower price points, the rental vacancy rate ticked up to 6.6% in the third quarter. This uptick in rental vacancy suggests the recent supply has outpaced demand, but context is important. After recent gains, the rental vacancy rate is on par with its level right before the onset of the pandemic in early 2020, still below its 7.2% average from the 2013 to 2019 period. Looking ahead, the strong construction pipeline– which hit a record high for units under construction this summer –is expected to continue fueling rental supply growth in 2024 pushing rental vacancy back toward its long-run average.
While the surge in new multi-family supply gives renters options, the sheer number of renters will minimize the potential price impact. The median asking rent in 2024 is expected to drop only slightly below its 2023 level. Renting is expected to continue to be a more budget friendly option than buying in the vast majority of markets, even though home prices and mortgage rates are both expected to dip, helping pull the purchase market down slightly from record unaffordability.
Young adult renters who lack the benefit of historically high home equity to tap into for a home purchase will continue to find the housing market challenging. Specifically, as many Millennials age past first-time home buying age and more Gen Z approach these years, the current housing landscape is likely to keep these households in the rental market for a longer period as they work to save up more money for the growing down payment needed to buy a first home. This trend is expected to sustain robust demand for rental properties. Consequently, we anticipate that rental markets favored by young adults , a list which includes a mix of affordable areas and tech-heavy job markets in the South, Midwest, and West, will be rental markets to watch in 2024.
What will the market be like for homebuyers, especially first-time homebuyers.
First-time homebuyers will continue to face a challenging housing market in 2024, but there are some green shoots. The record-high share of income required to purchase the median priced home is expected to begin to decline as mortgage rates ease, home prices soften, and incomes grow. In 2023 we expect that for the year as a whole, the monthly cost of financing the typical for-sale home will average more than $2,240, a nearly 20% increase over the mortgage payment in 2022, and roughly double the typical payment for buyers in 2020. This amounted to a whopping nearly 37% of the typical household income. In 2024 as modest price declines take hold and mortgage rates dip, the typical purchase cost is expected to slip just under $2,200 which would amount to nearly 35% of income. While far higher than historically average, this is a significant first step in a buyer-friendly direction.
Homebuyers can prepare for this year’s housing market by getting financially ready. Buyers can use a home affordability calculator , like this one at Realtor.com to translate their income and savings into a home price range. And shoppers can pressure test the results by using a mortgage calculator to consider different down payment, price, and loan scenarios to see how their monthly costs would be impacted. Working with a lender can help potential buyers explore different loan products such as FHA or VA loans that may offer lower mortgage interest rates or more flexible credit criteria.
Although prices are anticipated to fall in 2024, housing costs remain high, and a down payment can be a big obstacle for buyers. Recent research shows that the typical down payment on a home reached a record high of $30,000 . To make it easier to cobble together a down payment, shoppers can access information about down payment assistance options at Realtor.com/fairhousing and in the monthly payment section of home listing pages. Furthermore, home shoppers can explore loan products geared toward helping families access homeownership by enabling down payments as low as 3.5% in the case of FHA loans and 0% in the case of VA loans .
Home sellers are likely to face more competition from builders than from other sellers in 2024. Because builders are continuing to maintain supply and increasingly adapting to market conditions, they are increasingly focused on lower-priced homes and willing to make price adjustments when needed. As a result, potential sellers will want to consider the landscape for new construction housing in their markets and any implications for pricing and marketing before listing their home for sale.
In 2024, renting is expected to continue to be a more cost-effective option than buying in the short term even though we anticipate the advantage for renting to diminish as home prices and mortgage rates decline.
However, for those considering the pursuit of long-term equity through homeownership, it’s essential to not only stay alert about market trends but also to carefully consider the intended duration of residence in their next home. When home prices rise rapidly, like they did during the pandemic, the higher cost of purchasing a home may break even with the cost of renting in as little as 3 years. Generally, it takes longer to reach the breakeven point, typically within a 5 to 7-year timeframe. Importantly, when home prices are falling and rents are also declining, as is expected to be the case in 2024, it can take longer to recoup some of the higher costs of buying a home. Individuals using Realtor.com’s Rent vs. Buy Calculator can thoroughly evaluate the costs and benefits associated with renting versus buying over time and how many years current market trends suggest it will take before buying is the better financial decision. This comprehensive tool can provide insights tailored to a household’s specific rent versus buying decision and empowers consumers to consider not only the optimal choice for the current month but also how the trade-offs evolve over several years.
All real estate is local and while the national trends are instructive, what matters most is what’s expected in your local market.
Akron, OH | 3.2% | 3.2% |
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY | 1.1% | 3.7% |
Albuquerque, NM | -4.1% | 5.2% |
Allentown-Bethlehem et al, PA-NJ | 2.2% | 5.0% |
Atlanta-Sandy Springs et al, GA | -15.8% | 0.4% |
Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC | 5.8% | 1.8% |
Austin-Round Rock, TX | -11.7% | -12.2% |
Bakersfield, CA | 13.4% | 2.3% |
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD | -3.1% | 4.6% |
Baton Rouge, LA | -20.4% | -5.6% |
Birmingham-Hoover, AL | -4.9% | -1.5% |
Boise City, ID | -3.2% | -3.4% |
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | -0.6% | -0.6% |
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT | -1.3% | 7.2% |
Buffalo-Cheektowaga et al, NY | 8.3% | 3.9% |
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | -3.7% | -2.9% |
Charleston-North Charleston, SC | -13.2% | 3.7% |
Charlotte-Concord et al, NC-SC | -22.4% | -0.9% |
Chattanooga, TN-GA | -3.6% | 2.0% |
Chicago et al, IL-IN-WI | -9.2% | 1.1% |
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN | -3.9% | 4.1% |
Cleveland-Elyria, OH | -1.2% | 2.8% |
Colorado Springs, CO | -11.5% | -1.7% |
Columbia, SC | -12.3% | -1.8% |
Columbus, OH | -1.7% | 2.2% |
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | -12.9% | -8.4% |
Dayton-Kettering, OH | -2.9% | 4.8% |
Deltona-Daytona Beach et al, FL | -3.7% | -3.1% |
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO | -15.3% | -5.1% |
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA | -5.6% | 9.9% |
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI | -6.7% | 10.9% |
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC | -1.5% | 5.8% |
El Paso, TX | 6.3% | 4.6% |
Fresno, CA | -6.0% | -0.3% |
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI | 6.1% | 7.2% |
Greensboro-High Point, NC | -1.2% | 3.3% |
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC | -12.4% | 1.0% |
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA | 5.6% | 5.1% |
Hartford-West Hartford et al, CT | 3.1% | 9.1% |
Houston-The Woodlands et al, TX | -9.7% | -4.5% |
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN | -7.6% | 6.1% |
Jacksonville, FL | -5.8% | -0.5% |
Kansas City, MO-KS | 5.4% | -1.2% |
Knoxville, TN | -5.9% | 7.2% |
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 2.9% | -3.5% |
Lansing-East Lansing, MI | 1.2% | 6.2% |
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV | 11.1% | -2.3% |
Little Rock et al, AR | 0.4% | 3.1% |
Los Angeles-Long Beach et al, CA | 9.2% | 3.5% |
Louisville et al, KY-IN | 9.1% | 1.2% |
Madison, WI | 3.9% | -1.5% |
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX | -0.6% | 1.6% |
Memphis, TN-MS-AR | -10.8% | -4.1% |
Miami-Fort Lauderdale et al, FL | 3.8% | 5.0% |
Milwaukee-Waukesha et al, WI | 0.2% | 1.1% |
Minneapolis et al, MN-WI | -2.4% | -0.9% |
Nashville-Davidson et al, TN | -11.4% | -4.8% |
New Haven-Milford, CT | 3.5% | 3.5% |
New Orleans-Metairie, LA | -1.1% | 3.1% |
New York-Newark et al, NY-NJ-PA | -10.8% | 3.0% |
North Port-Sarasota et al, FL | 1.3% | -4.9% |
Ogden-Clearfield, UT | -15.1% | -3.8% |
Oklahoma City, OK | 1.9% | 1.6% |
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA | 1.1% | 4.5% |
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 3.7% | 2.2% |
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA | 18.0% | 3.3% |
Palm Bay-Melbourne et al, FL | -6.1% | 2.3% |
Philadelphia et al, PA-NJ-DE-MD | -13.4% | 3.8% |
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ | 4.4% | -4.3% |
Pittsburgh, PA | -8.5% | 6.9% |
Portland-South Portland, ME | 8.0% | -1.9% |
Portland-Vancouver et al, OR-WA | -25.6% | -7.4% |
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA | 3.9% | 3.1% |
Raleigh, NC | -17.0% | 3.6% |
Richmond, VA | -11.6% | 3.3% |
Riverside et al, CA | 13.8% | 2.0% |
Rochester, NY | 6.2% | 10.4% |
Sacramento–Roseville et al, CA | 10.3% | -1.3% |
Salt Lake City, UT | -10.2% | -4.1% |
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | -10.1% | -9.4% |
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA | 11.0% | 5.4% |
San Francisco-Oakland et al, CA | -0.8% | -5.2% |
San Jose-Sunnyvale et al, CA | -18.5% | 3.1% |
Scranton–Wilkes-Barre et al, PA | 5.5% | 6.3% |
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 3.9% | -1.0% |
Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA | 3.6% | -10.2% |
Springfield, MA | 10.5% | 4.2% |
St. Louis, MO-IL | -2.3% | -11.7% |
Stockton-Lodi, CA | -5.8% | -3.7% |
Syracuse, NY | 3.4% | 6.4% |
Tampa-St. Petersburg et al, FL | -5.3% | 1.2% |
Toledo, OH | 14.0% | 8.3% |
Tucson, AZ | 2.3% | -1.8% |
Tulsa, OK | -1.4% | 2.8% |
Urban Honolulu, HI | -8.9% | -1.9% |
Virginia Beach et al, VA-NC | 0.3% | 5.3% |
Washington et al, DC-VA-MD-WV | -0.8% | 2.6% |
Wichita, KS | -6.2% | 2.3% |
Winston-Salem, NC | -8.0% | 0.3% |
Worcester, MA-CT | 9.1% | 4.8% |
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One-Third of Property Managers are Offering Concessions as Rental Market Cools
JULY 2024 U.S. Typical Home Value (Zillow Home Value Index)
$362,482 (2.8% YoY)
JULY 2024 U.S. Typical Rent (Zillow Observed Rent Index)
$2,070 (3.4% YOY)
July 2024 Change in New Listings
MAY 2024 Typical Mortgage Payment
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1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. Market Overview 1.2. Market Definition 1.3. Scope of the Study 1.4. Market Segmentation 1.5. Currency 1.6. Assumptions 1.7. Base and Forecast Years Timeline 1.8. Key Benefits for the Stakeholder 2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 2.1. Research Design 2.2. Research Processes 3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3.1. Key Findings 4. MARKET DYNAMICS 4.1. Market Drivers 4.2. Market Restraints 4.3. Porter’s Five Forces Analysis 4.3.1. Bargaining Power of Suppliers 4.3.2. Bargaining Power of Buyers 4.3.3. Threat of New Entrants 4.3.4. Threat of Substitutes 4.3.5. Competitive Rivalry in the Industry 4.4. Industry Value Chain Analysis 4.5. Analyst View 5. ASIA PACIFIC (APAC) DATA CENTER BLADE SERVER MARKET BY DATA CENTER TYPE 5.1. Introduction 5.2. Tier 1 5.3. Tier 2 5.4. Tier 3 5.5. Tier 4 6. ASIA PACIFIC (APAC) DATA CENTER BLADE SERVER MARKET BY SERVICE 6.1. Introduction 6.2. Professional Service 6.3. Consulting Service 6.4. Installation and Support Service 7. ASIA PACIFIC (APAC) DATA CENTER BLADE SERVER MARKET BY ENTERPRISE SIZE 7.1. Introduction 7.2. Small 7.3. Medium 7.4. Large 8. ASIA PACIFIC (APAC) DATA CENTER BLADE SERVER MARKET BY INDUSTRY VERTICAL 8.1. Introduction 8.2. IT and Telecom 8.3. Manufacturing 8.4. Media and Entertainment 8.5. BFSI 8.6. Retail 8.7. Government 8.8. Healthcare 8.9. Others 9. ASIA PACIFIC (APAC) DATA CENTER BLADE SERVER MARKET BY COUNTRY 9.1. Introduction 9.2. India 9.3. Japan 9.4. China 9.5. Taiwan 9.6. Thailand 9.7. Indonesia 9.8. Others 10. COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT AND ANALYSIS 10.1. Major Players and Strategy Analysis 10.2. Market Share Analysis 10.3. Mergers, Acquisitions, Agreements, and Collaborations 10.4. Competitive Dashboard 11. COMPANY PROFILES 11.1. Dell Inc 11.2. Cisco 11.3. Huawei 11.4. IBM 11.5. Lenovo 11.6. Inspur Systems 11.7. Fujitsu 11.8. NEC Corporation 11.9. Unitas Global 11.10. Amazon Web Service (Amazon)
Data center blade server, data center blade server global market report 2024, asia pacific data center colocation market - forecasts from 2024 to 2029, global data center blade server market research report 2024(status and outlook), data center server market report by product (rack servers, blade servers, micro servers, tower servers), application (industrial servers, commercial servers), and region 2024-2032.
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Learn how to collect, process, analyze, and interpret data related to a specific market, industry, or business environment. Discover the key steps, benefits, and best practices of market research analysis for informed decision-making and strategic planning.
Data analysis in market research is the process of collecting, processing, analyzing, and modeling data to create useful insight. By using large pools of market research data, you can identify trends, patterns, and connections that shape their future business strategies. Market research data can be quantitative or qualitative.
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