essay on world problems

A problem built into our relationship with energy itself. Photo by Ferdinando Scianna/Magnum

Deep warming

Even if we ‘solve’ global warming, we face an older, slower problem. waste heat could radically alter earth’s future.

by Mark Buchanan   + BIO

The world will be transformed. By 2050, we will be driving electric cars and flying in aircraft running on synthetic fuels produced through solar and wind energy. New energy-efficient technologies, most likely harnessing artificial intelligence, will dominate nearly all human activities from farming to heavy industry. The fossil fuel industry will be in the final stages of a terminal decline. Nuclear fusion and other new energy sources may have become widespread. Perhaps our planet will even be orbited by massive solar arrays capturing cosmic energy from sunlight and generating seemingly endless energy for all our needs.

That is one possible future for humanity. It’s an optimistic view of how radical changes to energy production might help us slow or avoid the worst outcomes of global warming. In a report from 1965, scientists from the US government warned that our ongoing use of fossil fuels would cause global warming with potentially disastrous consequences for Earth’s climate. The report, one of the first government-produced documents to predict a major crisis caused by humanity’s large-scale activities, noted that the likely consequences would include higher global temperatures, the melting of the ice caps and rising sea levels. ‘Through his worldwide industrial civilisation,’ the report concluded, ‘Man is unwittingly conducting a vast geophysical experiment’ – an experiment with a highly uncertain outcome, but clear and important risks for life on Earth.

Since then, we’ve dithered and doubted and argued about what to do, but still have not managed to take serious action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which continue to rise. Governments around the planet have promised to phase out emissions in the coming decades and transition to ‘green energy’. But global temperatures may be rising faster than we expected: some climate scientists worry that rapid rises could create new problems and positive feedback loops that may accelerate climate destabilisation and make parts of the world uninhabitable long before a hoped-for transition is possible.

Despite this bleak vision of the future, there are reasons for optimists to hope due to progress on cleaner sources of renewable energy, especially solar power. Around 2010, solar energy generation accounted for less than 1 per cent of the electricity generated by humanity. But experts believe that, by 2027, due to falling costs, better technology and exponential growth in new installations, solar power will become the largest global energy source for producing electricity. If progress on renewables continues, we might find a way to resolve the warming problem linked to greenhouse gas emissions. By 2050, large-scale societal and ecological changes might have helped us avoid the worst consequences of our extensive use of fossil fuels.

It’s a momentous challenge. And it won’t be easy. But this story of transformation only hints at the true depth of the future problems humanity will confront in managing our energy use and its influence over our climate.

As scientists are gradually learning, even if we solve the immediate warming problem linked to the greenhouse effect, there’s another warming problem steadily growing beneath it. Let’s call it the ‘deep warming’ problem. This deeper problem also raises Earth’s surface temperature but, unlike global warming, it has nothing to do with greenhouse gases and our use of fossil fuels. It stems directly from our use of energy in all forms and our tendency to use more energy over time – a problem created by the inevitable waste heat that is generated whenever we use energy to do something. Yes, the world may well be transformed by 2050. Carbon dioxide levels may stabilise or fall thanks to advanced AI-assisted technologies that run on energy harvested from the sun and wind. And the fossil fuel industry may be taking its last breaths. But we will still face a deeper problem. That’s because ‘deep warming’ is not created by the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. It’s a problem built into our relationship with energy itself.

F inding new ways to harness more energy has been a constant theme of human development. The evolution of humanity – from early modes of hunter-gathering to farming and industry – has involved large systematic increases in our per-capita energy use. The British historian and archaeologist Ian Morris estimates, in his book Foragers, Farmers, and Fossil Fuels: How Human Values Evolve (2015), that early human hunter-gatherers, living more than 10,000 years ago, ‘captured’ around 5,000 kcal per person per day by consuming food, burning fuel, making clothing, building shelter, or through other activities. Later, after we turned to farming and enlisted the energies of domesticated animals, we were able to harness as much as 30,000 kcal per day. In the late 17th century , the exploitation of coal and steam power marked another leap: by 1970, the use of fossil fuels allowed humans to consume some 230,000 kcal per person per day. (When we think about humanity writ large as ‘humans’, it’s important to acknowledge that the average person in the wealthiest nations consumes up to 100 times more energy than the average person in the poorest nations.) As the global population has risen and people have invented new energy-dependent technologies, our global energy use has continued to climb.

In many respects, this is great. We can now do more with less effort and achieve things that were unimaginable to the 17th-century inventors of steam engines, let alone to our hominin ancestors. We’ve made powerful mining machines, superfast trains, lasers for use in telecommunications and brain-imaging equipment. But these creations, while helping us, are also subtly heating the planet.

All the energy we humans use – to heat our homes, run our factories, propel our automobiles and aircraft, or to run our electronics – eventually ends up as heat in the environment. In the shorter term, most of the energy we use flows directly into the environment. It gets there through hot exhaust gases, friction between tires and roads, the noises generated by powerful engines, which spread out, dissipate, and eventually end up as heat. However, a small portion of the energy we use gets stored in physical changes, such as in new steel, plastic or concrete. It’s stored in our cities and technologies. In the longer term, as these materials break down, the energy stored inside also finds its way into the environment as heat. This is a direct consequence of the well-tested principles of thermodynamics.

Waste heat will pose a problem that is every bit as serious as global warming from greenhouse gases

In the early decades of the 21st century , this heat created by simply using energy, known as ‘waste heat’, is not so serious. It’s equivalent to roughly 2 per cent of the planetary heating imbalance caused by greenhouse gases – for now. But, with the passing of time, the problem is likely to get much more serious. That’s because humans have a historical tendency to consistently discover and produce things, creating entirely new technologies and industries in the process: domesticated animals for farming; railways and automobiles; global air travel and shipping; personal computers, the internet and mobile phones. The result of such activities is that we end up using more and more energy, despite improved energy efficiency in nearly every area of technology.

During the past two centuries at least (and likely for much longer), our yearly energy use has doubled roughly every 30 to 50 years . Our energy use seems to be growing exponentially, a trend that shows every sign of continuing. We keep finding new things to do and almost everything we invent requires more and more energy: consider the enormous energy demands of cryptocurrency mining or the accelerating energy requirements of AI.

If this historical trend continues, scientists estimate waste heat will pose a problem in roughly 150-200 years that is every bit as serious as the current problem of global warming from greenhouse gases. However, deep heating will be more pernicious as we won’t be able to avoid it by merely shifting from one kind energy to another. A profound problem will loom before us: can we set strict limits on all the energy we use? Can we reign in the seemingly inexorable expansion of our activities to avoid destroying our own environment?

Deep warming is a problem hiding beneath global warming, but one that will become prominent if and when we manage to solve the more pressing issue of greenhouse gases. It remains just out of sight, which might explain why scientists only became concerned about the ‘waste heat’ problem around 15 years ago.

O ne of the first people to describe the problem is the Harvard astrophysicist Eric Chaisson, who discussed the issue of waste heat in a paper titled ‘Long-Term Global Heating from Energy Usage’ (2008). He concluded that our technological society may be facing a fundamental limit to growth due to ‘unavoidable global heating … dictated solely by the second law of thermodynamics, a biogeophysical effect often ignored when estimating future planetary warming scenarios’. When I emailed Chaisson to learn more, he told me the history of his thinking on the problem:

It was on a night flight, Paris-Boston [circa] 2006, after a UNESCO meeting on the environment when it dawned on me that the IPCC were overlooking something. While others on the plane slept, I crunched some numbers literally on the back of an envelope … and then hoped I was wrong, that is, hoped that I was incorrect in thinking that the very act of using energy heats the air, however slightly now.

The transformation of energy into heat is among the most ubiquitous processes of physics

Chaisson drafted the idea up as a paper and sent it to an academic journal. Two anonymous reviewers were eager for it to be published. ‘A third tried his damnedest to kill it,’ Chaisson said, the reviewer claiming the findings were ‘irrelevant and distracting’. After it was finally published, the paper got some traction when it was covered by a journalist and ran as a feature story on the front page of The Boston Globe . The numbers Chaisson crunched, predictions of our mounting waste heat, were even run on a supercomputer at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, by Mark Flanner, a professor of earth system science. Flanner, Chaisson suspected at the time, was likely ‘out to prove it wrong’. But, ‘after his machine crunched for many hours’, he saw the same results that Chaisson had written on the back of an envelope that night in the plane.

Around the same time, also in 2008, two engineers, Nick Cowern and Chihak Ahn, wrote a research paper entirely independent of Chaisson’s work, but with similar conclusions. This was how I first came across the problem. Cowern and Ahn’s study estimated the total amount of waste heat we’re currently releasing to the environment, and found that it is, right now, quite small. But, like Chaisson, they acknowledged that the problem would eventually become serious unless steps were taken to avoid it.

That’s some of the early history of thinking in this area. But these two papers, and a few other analyses since, point to the same unsettling conclusion: what I am calling ‘deep warming’ will be a big problem for humanity at some point in the not-too-distant future. The precise date is far from certain. It might be 150 years , or 400, or 800, but it’s in the relatively near future, not the distant future of, say, thousands or millions of years. This is our future.

T he transformation of energy into heat is among the most ubiquitous processes of physics. As cars drive down roads, trains roar along railways, planes cross the skies and industrial plants turn raw materials into refined products, energy gets turned into heat, which is the scientific word for energy stored in the disorganised motions of molecules at the microscopic level. As a plane flies from Paris to Boston, it burns fuel and thrusts hot gases into the air, generates lots of sound and stirs up contrails. These swirls of air give rise to swirls on smaller scales which in turn make smaller ones until the energy ultimately ends up lost in heat – the air is a little warmer than before, the molecules making it up moving about a little more vigorously. A similar process takes place when energy is used by the tiny electrical currents inside the microchips of computers, silently carrying out computations. Energy used always ends up as heat. Decades ago, research by the IBM physicist Rolf Landauer showed that a computation involving even a single computing bit will release a certain minimum amount of heat to the environment.

How this happens is described by the laws of thermodynamics, which were described in the mid-19th century by scientists including Sadi Carnot in France and Rudolf Clausius in Germany. Two key ‘laws’ summarise its main principles.

The first law of thermodynamics simply states that the total quantity of energy never changes but is conserved. Energy, in other words, never disappears, but only changes form. The energy initially stored in an aircraft’s fuel, for example, can be changed into the energetic motion of the plane. Turn on an electric heater, and energy initially held in electric currents gets turned into heat, which spreads into the air, walls and fabric of your house. The total energy remains the same, but it markedly changes form.

We’re generating waste heat all the time with everything we do

The second law of thermodynamics, equally important, is more subtle and states that, in natural processes, the transformation of energy always moves from more organised and useful forms to less organised and less useful forms. For an aircraft, the energy initially concentrated in jet fuel ends up dissipated in stirred-up winds, sounds and heat spread over vast areas of the atmosphere in a largely invisible way. It’s the same with the electric heater: the organised useful energy in the electric currents gets dissipated and spread into the low-grade warmth of the walls, then leaks into the outside air. Although the amount of energy remains the same, it gradually turns into less organised, less usable forms. The end point of the energy process produces waste heat. And we’re generating it all the time with everything we do.

Data on world energy consumption shows that, collectively, all humans on Earth are currently using about 170,000 terawatt-hours (TWh), which is a lot of energy in absolute terms – a terawatt-hour is the total energy consumed in one hour by any process using energy at a rate of 1 trillion watts. This huge number isn’t surprising, as it represents all the energy being used every day by the billions of cars and homes around the world, as well as by industry, farming, construction, air traffic and so on. But, in the early 21st century , the warming from this energy is still much less than the planetary heating due to greenhouse gases.

Concentrations of greenhouse gases such as CO 2 and methane are quite small, and only make a fractional difference to how much of the Sun’s energy gets trapped in the atmosphere, rather than making it back out to space. Even so, this fractional difference has a huge effect because the stream of energy arriving from the Sun to Earth is so large. Current estimates of this greenhouse energy imbalance come to around 0.87 W per square meter, which translates into a total energy figure about 50 times larger than our waste heat. That’s reassuring. But as Cowern and Ahn wrote in their 2008 paper, things aren’t likely to stay this way over time because our energy usage keeps rising. Unless, that is, we can find some radical way to break the trend of using ever more energy.

O ne common objection to the idea of the deep warming is to claim that the problem won’t really arise. ‘Don’t worry,’ someone might say, ‘with efficient technology, we’re going to find ways to stop using more energy; though we’ll end up doing more things in the future, we’ll use less energy.’ This may sound plausible at first, because we are indeed getting more efficient at using energy in most areas of technology. Our cars, appliances and laptops are all doing more with less energy. If efficiency keeps improving, perhaps we can learn to run these things with almost no energy at all? Not likely, because there are limits to energy efficiency.

Over the past few decades, the efficiency of heating in homes – including oil and gas furnaces, and boilers used to heat water – has increased from less than 50 per cent to well above 90 per cent of what is theoretically possible. That’s good news, but there’s not much more efficiency to be realised in basic heating. The efficiency of lighting has also vastly improved, with modern LED lighting turning something like 70 per cent of the applied electrical energy into light. We will gain some efficiencies as older lighting gets completely replaced by LEDs, but there’s not a lot of room left for future efficiency improvements. Similar efficiency limits arise in the growing or cooking of food; in the manufacturing of cars, bikes and electronic devices; in transportation, as we’re taken from place to place; in the running of search engines, translation software, GPT-4 or other large-language models.

Even if we made significant improvements in the efficiencies of these technologies, we will only have bought a little time. These changes won’t delay by much the date when deep warming becomes a problem we must reckon with.

Optimising efficiencies is just a temporary reprieve, not a radical change in our human future

As a thought experiment, suppose we could immediately improve the energy efficiency of everything we do by a factor of 10 – a fantastically optimistic proposal. That is, imagine the energy output of humans on Earth has been reduced 10 times , from 170,000 TWh to 17,000 TWh . If our energy use keeps expanding, doubling every 30-50 years or so (as it has for centuries), then a 10-fold increase in waste heat will happen in just over three doubling times, which is about 130 years : 17,000 TWh doubles to 34,000 TWh , which doubles to 68,000 TWh , which doubles to 136,000 TWh , and so on. All those improvements in energy efficiency would quickly evaporate. The date when deep warming hits would recede by 130 years or so, but not much more. Optimising efficiencies is just a temporary reprieve, not a radical change in our human future.

Improvements in energy efficiency can also have an inverse effect on our overall energy use. It’s easy to think that if we make a technology more efficient, we’ll then use less energy through the technology. But economists are deeply aware of a paradoxical effect known as ‘rebound’, whereby improved energy efficiency, by making the use of a technology cheaper, actually leads to more widespread use of that technology – and more energy use too. The classic example, as noted by the British economist William Stanley Jevons in his book The Coal Question (1865), is the invention of the steam engine. This new technology could extract energy from burning coal more efficiently, but it also made possible so many new applications that the use of coal increased. A recent study by economists suggests that, across the economy, such rebound effects might easily swallow at least 50 per cent of any efficiency gains in energy use. Something similar has already happened with LED lights, for which people have found thousands of new uses.

If gains in efficiency won’t buy us lots of time, how about other factors, such as a reduction of the global population? Scientists generally believe that the current human population of more than 8 billion people is well beyond the limits of our finite planet, especially if a large fraction of this population aspires to the resource-intensive lifestyles of wealthy nations. Some estimates suggest that a more sustainable population might be more like 2 billion , which could reduce energy use significantly, potentially by a factor of three or four. However, this isn’t a real solution: again, as with the example of improved energy efficiency, a one-time reduction of our energy consumption by a factor of three will quickly be swallowed up by an inexorable rise in energy use. If Earth’s population were suddenly reduced to 2 billion – about a quarter of the current population – our energy gains would initially be enormous. But those gains would be erased in two doubling times, or roughly 60-100 years , as our energy demands would grow fourfold.

S o, why aren’t more people talking about this? The deep warming problem is starting to get more attention. It was recently mentioned on Twitter by the German climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf, who cautioned that nuclear fusion, despite excitement over recent advances, won’t arrive in time to save us from our waste heat, and might make the problem worse. By providing another cheap source of energy, fusion energy could accelerate both the growth of our energy use and the reckoning of deep warming. A student of Rahmstorf’s, Peter Steiglechner, wrote his master’s thesis on the problem in 2018. Recognition of deep warming and its long-term implications for humanity is spreading. But what can we do about the problem?

Avoiding or delaying deep warming will involve slowing the rise of our waste heat, which means restricting the amount of energy we use and also choosing energy sources that exacerbate the problem as little as possible. Unlike the energy from fossil fuels or nuclear power, which add to our waste energy burden, renewable energy sources intercept energy that is already on its way to Earth, rather than producing additional waste heat. In this sense, the deep warming problem is another reason to pursue renewable energy sources such as solar or wind rather than alternatives such as nuclear fusion, fission or even geothermal power. If we derive energy from any of these sources, we’re unleashing new flows of energy into the Earth system without making a compensating reduction. As a result, all such sources will add to the waste heat problem. However, if renewable sources of energy are deployed correctly, they need not add to our deposition of waste heat in the environment. By using this energy, we produce no more waste heat than would have been created by sunlight in the first place.

Take the example of wind energy. Sunlight first stirs winds into motion by heating parts of the planet unequally, causing vast cells of convection. As wind churns through the atmosphere, blows through trees and over mountains and waves, most of its energy gets turned into heat, ending up in the microscopic motions of molecules. If we harvest some of this wind energy through turbines, it will also be turned into heat in the form of stored energy. But, crucially, no more heat is generated than if there had been no turbines to capture the wind.

The same can hold true for solar energy. In an array of solar cells, if each cell only collects the sunlight falling on it – which would ordinarily have been absorbed by Earth’s surface – then the cells don’t alter how much waste heat gets produced as they generate energy. The light that would have warmed Earth’s surface instead goes into the solar cells, gets used by people for some purpose, and then later ends up as heat. In this way we reduce the amount of heat being absorbed by Earth by precisely the same amount as the energy we are extracting for human use. We are not adding to overall planetary heating. This keeps the waste energy burden unchanged, at least in the relatively near future, even if we go on extracting and using ever larger amounts of energy.

Covering deserts in dark panels would absorb a lot more energy than the desert floor

Chaisson summarised the problem quite clearly in 2008:

I’m now of the opinion … that any energy that’s dug up on Earth – including all fossil fuels of course, but also nuclear and ground-sourced geothermal – will inevitably produce waste heat as a byproduct of humankind’s use of energy. The only exception to that is energy arriving from beyond Earth, this is energy here and now and not dug up, namely the many solar energies (plural) caused by the Sun’s rays landing here daily … The need to avoid waste heat is indeed the single, strongest, scientific argument to embrace solar energies of all types.

But not just any method of gathering solar energy will avoid the deep warming problem. Doing so requires careful engineering. For example, covering deserts with solar panels would add to planetary heating because deserts reflect a lot of incident light back out to space, so it is never absorbed by Earth (and therefore doesn’t produce waste heat). Covering deserts in dark panels would absorb a lot more energy than the desert floor and would heat the planet further.

We’ll also face serious problems in the long run if our energy appetite keeps increasing. Futurists dream of technologies deployed in space where huge panels would absorb sunlight that would otherwise have passed by Earth and never entered our atmosphere. Ultimately, they believe, this energy could be beamed down to Earth. Like nuclear energy, such technologies would add an additional energy source to the planet without any compensating removal of heating from the sunlight currently striking our planet’s surface. Any effort to produce more energy than is normally available from sunlight at Earth’s surface will only make our heating problems worse.

D eep warming is simply a consequence of the laws of physics and our inquisitive nature. It seems to be in our nature to constantly learn and develop new things, changing our environment in the process. For thousands of years, we have harvested and exploited ever greater quantities of energy in this pursuit, and we appear poised to continue along this path with the rapidly expanding use of renewable energy sources – and perhaps even more novel sources such as nuclear fusion. But this path cannot proceed indefinitely without consequences.

The logic that more energy equals more warming sets up a profound dilemma for our future. The laws of physics and the habits ingrained in us from our long evolutionary history are steering us toward trouble. We may have a technological fix for greenhouse gas warming – just shift from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources – but there is no technical trick to get us out of the deep warming problem. That won’t stop some scientists from trying.

Perhaps, believing that humanity is incapable of reducing its energy usage, we’ll adopt a fantastic scheme to cool the planet, such as planetary-scale refrigeration or using artificially engineered tornadoes to transport heat from Earth’s surface to the upper atmosphere where it can be radiated away to space. As far-fetched as such approaches sound, scientists have given some serious thought to these and other equally bizarre ideas, which seem wholly in the realm of science fiction. They’re schemes that will likely make the problem worse not better.

We will need to transform the human story. It must become a story of doing less, not more

I see several possibilities for how we might ultimately respond. As with greenhouse gas warming, there will probably be an initial period of disbelief, denial and inaction, as we continue with unconstrained technological advance and growing energy use. Our planet will continue warming. Sooner or later, however, such warming will lead to serious disruptions of the Earth environment and its ecosystems. We won’t be able to ignore this for long, and it may provide a natural counterbalance to our energy use, as our technical and social capacity to generate and use ever more energy will be eroded. We may eventually come to some uncomfortable balance in which we just scrabble out a life on a hot, compromised planet because we lack the moral and organisational ability to restrict our energy use enough to maintain a sound environment.

An alternative would require a radical break with our past: using less energy. Finding a way to use less energy would represent a truly fundamental rupture with all of human history, something entirely novel. A rupture of this magnitude won’t come easily. However, if we could learn to view restrictions on our energy use as a non-negotiable element of life on Earth, we may still be able to do many of the things that make us essentially human: learning, discovering, inventing, creating. In this scenario, any helpful new technology that comes into use and begins using lots of energy would require a balancing reduction in energy use elsewhere. In such a way, we might go on with the future being perpetually new, and possibly better.

None of this is easily achieved and will likely mirror our current struggles to come to agreements on greenhouse gas heating. There will be vicious squabbles, arguments and profound polarisation, quite possibly major wars. Humanity will never have faced a challenge of this magnitude, and we won’t face up to it quickly or easily, I expect. But we must. Planetary heating is in our future – the very near future and further out as well. Many people will find this conclusion surprisingly hard to swallow, perhaps because it implies fundamental restrictions on our future here on Earth: we can’t go on forever using more and more energy, and, at the same time, expecting the planet’s climate to remain stable.

The world will likely be transformed by 2050. And, sometime after that, we will need to transform the human story. The narrative arc of humanity must become a tale of continuing innovation and learning, but also one of careful management. It must become a story, in energy terms, of doing less, not more. There’s no technology for entirely escaping waste heat, only techniques.

This is important to remember as we face up to the extremely urgent challenge of heating linked to fossil-fuel use and greenhouse gases. Global warming is just the beginning of our problems. It’s a testing ground to see if we can manage an intelligent and coordinated response. If we can handle this challenge, we might be better prepared, more capable and resilient as a species to tackle an even harder one.

Political philosophy

C L R James and America

The brilliant Trinidadian thinker is remembered as an admirer of the US but he also warned of its dark political future

Harvey Neptune

Progress and modernity

The great wealth wave

The tide has turned – evidence shows ordinary citizens in the Western world are now richer and more equal than ever before

Daniel Waldenström

Neuroscience

The melting brain

It’s not just the planet and not just our health – the impact of a warming climate extends deep into our cortical fissures

Clayton Page Aldern

Falling for suburbia

Modernists and historians alike loathed the millions of new houses built in interwar Britain. But their owners loved them

Michael Gilson

Computing and artificial intelligence

Mere imitation

Generative AI has lately set off public euphoria: the machines have learned to think! But just how intelligent is AI?

Anthropology

Your body is an archive

If human knowledge can disappear so easily, why have so many cultural practices survived without written records?

Helena Miton

Euler and the Seven Bridges of Königsberg Problem

A neurophilosophy of power and constitutionalism, openmind books, scientific anniversaries, present and future in the fight against alzheimer's, featured author, latest book, 15 global challenges for the next decades.

Humanity is facing major global challenges that are transnational in nature and transinstitutional in solution. This essay confronts fifteen of the biggest issues, including how to achieve sustainable development, guarantee access to clean drinking water, foster ethical market economies and fight new as well as re-emerging diseases. While the panorama may appear pessimistic, humanity is winning more than losing – even if where we are losing is very serious. But these challenges cannot be addressed by any single government or institution acting alone. They require collaborative actions among governments, international organizations, universities, NGOs and creative individual. We need a serious focus on green growth, falling water tables, rising food/water/energy prices, population growth, resource depletion, climte change, terrorism, and changing disease patterns, otherwise the results may well be catastrophic.

Although many of the trends and possible future developments explained in this chapter can be quite depressing, based on sixteen years of research on the 15 Global Challenges identified by The Millennium Project, I have come to the conclusion that we have the resources and ideas to address them, and that there is more agreement about how to build a better future than is evident in the media, yet decision-making and institutional capacity — so far — is insufficient to make the decisions fast enough and on the scale large enough to build a better future.

Nevertheless, pessimism is unfounded, and it gives the excuse not to try to make better decisions that improve the future. Humanity is winning more than losing, although where we are losing is very serious. There is no guarantee that all will work out well, but the odds are in our favor — especially if more people and institutions understand that it is possible that we can all succeed, because we are already succeeding in many areas. If, however, more people and institutions do not get more strategic about addressing these challenges, then the negative scenarios are more likely.

When you consider the many wrong decisions and good decisions not taken — day after day and year after year around the world — it is amazing that we are still making as much progress as we are.

Fifty years ago, people argued that poverty elimination was an idealistic fantasy and a waste of money to try and eliminate; however, extreme poverty has fallen from 52 percent of the world in 1981 to about 20 percent in 2010. Extraordinary! The majority of the world was in extreme poverty just thirty-one years ago and now less than 20 percent?! Pessimists are just not doing their homework. And today people argue about the best ways to achieve that goal, not whether or not it is worthwhile to try.

Twenty-five years ago, people thought that civilization would end in a thermo-nuclear world war III between the USSR and the USA; today people think everyone should have access to the world’s knowledge via the Internet, regardless of income, nationality, or ideology. Extraordinary change! Within one lifetime. And now, an even more amazing thing: Google is making the phrase “I don’t know” obsolete.

It is possible within twenty-five years that anyone who wants it could have computational power many times beyond their individual brain’s capacity — and have that capacity available twenty-four hours a day, and seven days a week while walking down a street with just voice recognition from imbedded intelligent computer chips in buildings. You won’t need your own computer to access all that.

But we all know the future is not necessarily rosy. If current trends in population growth, resource depletion, climate change, terrorism, organized crime, and disease continue and converge over the next 50–100 years, it is easy to imagine a continually unstable world with a series of catastrophic results. At the same time, if current trends in self-organization via future Internets, transnational cooperation, materials science, 3-D printing, alternative energy, cognitive science, inter-religious dialogues, synthetic biology, and nanotechnology continue and converge over the next 50–100 years, it is easy to imagine a world that works for all.

Computational biophysics can simulate the physical forces among atoms, making medical diagnostics and treatment more individually accurate. Computational biology can create computer matching programs to quickly reduce the number of possible cures for specific diseases, with millions of people donating their unused computer capacity to run the matching programs (grid computing). Computational media allows extraordinary pixel and voxel detail when zooming in and out of 3-D images — making it seem more real than reality. Computational engineering brings together the world’s available information and computer models to rapidly accelerate efficiencies in design. All these are changing the nature of science, medicine, and engineering, and their acceleration is attached to Moore’s law; hence, computational everything will continue to accelerate the knowledge explosion. Tele-medicine, tele-education, and tele-everything will connect humanity, the built environment, and computational everything to address our global challenges.

The world is getting richer, healthier, better educated, more peaceful, and better connected and people are living longer, yet half the world is potentially unstable. Protesters around the world show a growing unwillingness to tolerate unethical decision-making by power elites. An increasingly educated and Internet-connected generation is rising up against the abuse of power. Food prices are rising, water tables are falling, corruption and organized crime are increasing, environmental viability for our life support is diminishing, debt and economic insecurity are increasing, climate change continues, and the gap between the rich and poor continues to widen dangerously.

Information and communications systems from simple mobile phones to supercomputers are augmenting human decision-making. It is reasonable to assume that the accelerating rates of these changes will eventually connect humanity and technology into new kinds of decision-making with global real-time feedback.

We have the resources and ideas to address them, and […] there is more agreement about how to build a better future than is evident in the media, yet decision-making and institutional capacity — so far — is insufficient to make the decisions fast enough and on the scale large enough to build a better future.

But history has taught us that good ideas and technologies can have unintended and negative consequences. These capabilities will eventually make it possible for a single individual acting alone to make and deploy a bioweapon of mass destruction and for organized crime to become far more powerful than today — when its combined income is already twice that of the total of the world’s military budgets. These and other dangerous future possibilities are not inevitable; there are many excellent solutions being pursued and making great progress, unbeknownst to the general public. Every year, The Millennium Project updates data about the global situation and prospects for the future, with most of the data updates going slowly but surely in a positive direction. Nevertheless, the world is in a race between implementing ever-increasing ways to improve the human condition and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scale of global problems.

So, how is the world doing in this race? What’s the score so far? A review of the trends of the twenty-eight variables used in The Millennium Project’s global State of the Future Index (SOFI) provides a score card on humanity’s performance in addressing the most important challenges.

An international Delphi panel selected over a hundred indicators of progress or regress for the 15 Global Challenges described later in this chapter. Variables were then chosen that had at least twenty years of reliable historical data. The resulting twenty-eight variables were submitted to an international panel selected by The Millennium Project Nodes to forecast the best and worst value for each variable in ten years. The results were integrated into the 2012 SOFI (Glenn, Gordon and Florescu 2012).

Where are we winning?

• Increasing access to water
• Increasing literacy rates
• Extending life expectancy at birth
• Reducing poverty (living on $1.25 a day)
• Reducing infant mortality
• Reducing war
• Reducing HIV prevalence
• Increasing the number of Internet users
• Increasing GDP per capita
• Increasing the number of women in parliaments
• Increasing secondary school enrollment
• Improving energy efficiency
• Reducing population growth
• Reducing the prevalence of undernourishment
• Reducing nuclear proliferation

Where are we losing?

• Increasing total debt
• Increasing unemployment
• Increasing income inequality
• Increasing the human ecological footprint/reducing biocapacity ratio
• Increasing greenhouse gas emissions
• Increasing terrorist attacks
• Reducing voter turnout

Where is there either no significant change or change is not clear?

• Freedom rights
• Electricity from renewables compared to non-renewables
• Forest lands
• R&D expenditures
• Physicians per capita

Evolution of the 15 Global challenges

In 1996, The Millennium Project3 asked several hundred futurists around the world what was going on now that could become very significant to the future in twenty-five years’ time and that is either not know or misunderstood. A total of 182 developments were collected by the Delphi survey. Another set of Delphi surveys and interviews collected and rated 131 actions to address these developments. These were all distilled into fifteen global issues with overviews and strategies.

These global issues identified by the Delphi surveys and interviews in 1996–1997 were:

• World population is growing; food, water, education, housing, and medical care must grow apace.
• Fresh water is becoming scarce in localized areas of the world.
• The gap in living standards between the rich and poor promises to become more extreme and divisive.
• The threat of new and re-emerging diseases and immune micro-organisms is growing.
• Capacity to decide is diminishing (as issues become more global and complex under conditions of increasing uncertainty and risk).
• Terrorism is increasingly destructive, proliferating, and difficult to prevent.
• Population growth and economic growth are interacting adversely with environmental quality and natural resources.
• The status of women is changing.
• Religious, ethnic, and racial conflicts are increasingly severe.
• Information technology offers both promise and peril.
• Organized crime groups are becoming sophisticated global enterprises.
• Economic growth is bringing both promising and threatening consequences.
• Nuclear power plants around the world are aging.
• The HIV epidemic will continue to spread.
• Work, unemployment, leisure, and underemployment are changing.

With sixteen years of hindsight, these issues are still indeed critical to the future. However, The Millennium Project’s Planning Committee at that time felt these issues stressed the problems more than the opportunities, giving an unbalanced view of the future. To correct this, the same process of collecting judgments and research conclusions of futurists via Delphi surveys and interviews was conducted in 1997–1998. This time, the international panel of futurists was asked what positive developments could evolve over the foreseeable future to significantly improve the human condition. A total of 180 developments were identified with 213 actions to increase the likelihood that they will improve the human condition; the results were then distilled to 15 Global Opportunities with overviews and strategies.

The global opportunities identified in 1997–1998 were:

• Achieving sustainable development
• Increasing the acceptance of global long-term perspectives in policymaking
• Expanding the potential for scientific and technological breakthroughs
• Transforming authoritarian regimes to democracies
• Encouraging diversity and shared ethical values
• Reducing the rate of population growth
• Evolving strategies for world peace and security
• Developing alternative sources of energy
• Globalizing the convergence of information and communications technologies (ICT)
• Increasing advances in biotechnology
• Encouraging economic development through ethical market economies
• Increasing the economic autonomy of women and other groups
• Promoting inquiry into new and sometimes counter-intuitive ideas
• Pursuing promising space projects
• Improving institutions

The following year we combined the two lists into 15 Global Challenges through a series of Delphi surveys and interviews, and we identified 213 actions. At this point the representatives for Finland on The Millennium Project Planning Committee said, “Stop! Don’t keep changing. This is a good list. Keep it; we want to use it to evaluate progress in our country. If you keep changing, it will be difficult for us to compare progress from one year to the next.” So the Global Challenges have remained the same.

The 15 global challenges in 2012

The 15 Global Challenges from 1999 to 2012 are:

How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change?

How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict, how can population growth and resources be brought into balance, how can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes, how can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives, how can the global convergence of ict work for everyone, how can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor, how can the threat of new and re-emerging diseases and immune micro-organisms be reduced, how can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions changes, how can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction, how can the changing status of women help improve the human condition, how can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises, how can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently, how can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition, how can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions.

The order of each of the issues, opportunities, and challenges are not prioritized by any definition of importance. Challenge 1 is not more or less important than Challenge 15. The volume of responses from the international panel was used to order the items in each list. The challenges are interdependent: an improvement in one makes it easier to address others; deterioration in one makes it harder to address others. Arguing whether one is more important than another is like arguing that the human nervous system is more important than the respiratory system. These challenges are transnational in nature and transinstitutional in solution. They cannot be addressed by any government or institution acting alone. They require collaborative action among governments, international organizations, corporations, universities, NGOs, and creative individuals.

Total human-induced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are about 49.5 gigatons of CO2 equivalent per year.5 Nature absorbs about half of this annually, but its ability to do that is diminishing. Global ecosystem services are being depleted faster than nature can resupply. The world is warming faster than the latest IPCC projections.6 According to NOAA, the first six months of 2012 were the hottest in the US since record-keeping began in 1895. Glaciers are melting, polar ice caps are thinning, and coral reefs are dying. Rapid population and economic growth over the past hundred years has reduced environmental viability for life support; the impact over the next hundred years could be far greater. It is time for a US–China Apollo-like ten-year goal and global R&D program to address climate change. These two countries are the greatest emitters of GHGs and have the largest economies. Such a joint program — with other countries joining in — could focus on accelerating the development of new technologies like electric cars, saltwater agriculture, carbon capture and reuse, solar power satellites, pure meat without growing animals, maglev trains, urban systems ecology, and a global climate change collective intelligence to support better decisions and keep track of it all. These technologies would have to supplement other key policy measures, including carbon taxes, cap and trade schemes, reduced deforestation, industrial efficiencies, cogeneration, conservation, recycling, and a switch of government subsidies from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

Over two billion people have gained access to improved drinking water since 1990, but 783 million people still do not have such access. Water tables are falling around the world, 40 percent of humanity gets its water from sources controlled by two or more countries, and global water demand could be 40 percent more than the current supply by 2030 (2030 Water Resources Group 2009). The slow but steady Himalayan meltdown is one of the greatest environmental security threats in Asia. Its mountains contain 40 percent of the world’s freshwater, which feeds 40 percent of humanity via seven great Asian rivers. Breakthroughs in desalination — such as the pressurization of seawater to produce vapor jets, filtration via carbon nanotubes, and reverse osmosis — are needed along with less costly pollution treatment and better water catchments. Future demand for freshwater could be reduced by saltwater agriculture on coastlines, hydroponics, aquaponics, vertical urban agriculture installations in buildings, the production of pure meat without growing animals, increased vegetarianism, fixes for leaking pipes, and the reuse of treated water.

The UN mid-range forecast estimates that world population is expected to grow by another two billion in just thirty-eight years, creating an unprecedented demand for resources. Most of that growth will be in low-income urban Asia. Today Asia has 4.2 billion people and is expected to grow to 5.9 billion by 2050. By 2030, the global middle class is expected to grow by 66 percent — about 3 billion more consumers with increased purchasing power and expectations (McKinsey Global Institute 2011). Population dynamics are changing from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility. The world’s fertility rate has fallen from 6 children in 1900 to 2.5 today.7 If fertility rates continue to fall, world population could actually shrink to 6.2 billion by 2100, creating an elderly world difficult to support. Today life expectancy at birth is 68 years, which is projected to grow to 81 by 2100.8 By 2050 there could be as many people over 65 as there are under 15,9 requiring new concepts of retirement. Scientific and medical breakthroughs are likely over the next 20–30 years that could give many people longer and more productive lives than most would believe possible today. People will work longer and create many forms of self-employed tele-work, part-time work, and job rotation to reduce the economic burden on younger generations and to maintain living standards. If new concepts of employment are not invented, increased political instability seems inevitable.

Current demographic shifts and improved education, compounded by economic volatility, are increasing demands for more transparent democratic systems. Although democracy has been growing for over twenty years, Freedom House reports that political and civil liberties declined in 2011 for the sixth consecutive year. New democracies must address previous abuses of power to earn citizens’ loyalties without increasing social discord, slowing the reconciliation process, and reducing human rights. An educated and correctly informed public is critical to democracy; hence, it is important to learn how to counter and prevent various ideological disinformation campaigns, information warfare, politically motivated government censorship, reporters’ self-censorship, and interest-group control over the Internet and other media, while reinforcing the pursuit of truth.

Old ideological, political, ethnic, and nationalistic legacies also have to be addressed to maintain the long-range trend toward democracy. Since democracies tend not to fight each other and since humanitarian crises are far more likely under authoritarian than democratic regimes, expanding democracy is sine qua non for building a peaceful and just future for all. Meanwhile, international procedures are needed to assist failed states or regions within states, and intervention strategies need to be designed for when a state constitutes a significant threat to its citizens or others.

Humanity needs a global, multifaceted, general long-term view of the future with long-range goals to help it make better decisions today to build a brighter future. Attaining such long-range goals as landing on the moon or eradicating smallpox that were considered impossible inspired many people to go beyond selfish, short-term economic interests to great achievements. Short-term, selfish economic decision-making has led to many problems, ranging from the Euro crisis to the political stalemate in Washington and insufficient actions from Rio+20. The options to create and update national, global, and corporate strategic foresight are so complex and are changing so rapidly that it is almost impossible for decision-makers to gather and understand the information required to make and implement coherent policy. At the same time, the consequences of incoherent policies are so serious that new systems for collective intelligence are needed to improve resilience.

National legislatures could establish standing “Committees for the Future,” as Finland has done. National foresight studies should be continually updated, improved, and conducted interactively with issue networks of policymakers and futurists and with other national long-range efforts. Decision-makers and their advisors should be trained in futures research (Glenn and Gordon 2009) for optimal use of these systems. Governments could add foresight as a performance evaluation criterion, add foresight to their training institutions, and require a “future considerations” section be added to policy reporting requirements. Government budgets should consider five-to-ten-year allocations attached to rolling five-to-ten-year SOFIs, scenarios, and strategies. Governments with short-term election cycles should consider longer, more stable terms and funds for the staff of parliamentarians. A successful Global Future Collective Intelligence System should help policymaking become more sensitive to global long-term perspectives. Participatory policymaking processes augmented by e-government services can be created, informed by futures research. Universities should fund the convergence of disciplines, teach futures research and synthesis as well as analysis, and produce generalists in addition to specialists.

These challenges are transnational in nature and transinstitutional in solution. They cannot be addressed by any government or institution acting alone. They require collaborative action among governments, international organizations, corporations, universities, NGOs, and creative individuals.

Over two billion Internet users, over six billion mobile phone subscriptions,10 and uncountable billions of hardware devices are intercommunicating in a vast real-time multi-network, supporting every facet of human activity. It is reasonable to assume that most of the world will experience ubiquitous computing and eventually spend most of its time in some form of technologically augmented reality. The race is on to complete the global nervous system of civilization. Ericsson forecasts that 85 percent of the world’s population will be covered by high-speed mobile Internet in 2017. Humanity, the built environment, and ubiquitous computing are becoming a continuum of consciousness and technology reflecting the full range of human behavior, from individual philanthropy to organized crime. New forms of civilization will emerge from this convergence of minds, information, and technology worldwide.

One of the next “big things” could be the emergence of collective intelligences for issues, businesses, and countries, forming new kinds of organizations able to address problems and opportunities without conventional management. Collective intelligence can be thought of as a continually emerging property that we create (hands on) from synergies among people, software, and information that continually learns from feedback to produce just-in-time knowledge for better decisions than any one of these elements acting alone. Real-time streamed communications shorten the time it takes from situational awareness to decisions. The Web is evolving from the present user-generated and participatory system (Web 2.0) into Web 3.0, a more intelligent partner that has knowledge about the meaning of the information it stores and has the ability to reason with that knowledge, using conceptual descendants of today’s Jeopardy-beating Watson from IBM and Apple’s affectionate Siri.

Low-cost computers are replacing high-cost weapons as an instrument of power in asymmetrical warfare. Cyberspace is also a new medium for disinformation among competing commercial interests, ideological adversaries, governments, and extremists, and it is a battleground between cybercriminals and law enforcement. Fundamental rethinking will be required to ensure that people will be able to have reasonable faith in information. We have to learn how to counter future forms of information warfare that could otherwise lead to the distrust of all forms of information in cyberspace. Nevertheless, the value of ICT for reducing the divisions among people outweighs its divisiveness. It is hard to imagine how the world can work for all without reliable tele-education, tele-medicine, and tele-everything. Universal broadband access should become a national priority for developing countries to make it easier to use the Internet to connect developing-country professionals overseas with the development processes back home, improve educational and business usage, and make e-government and other forms of development more available.

Assuming no new European crisis and that Europe’s recession will only shrink their economy by –0.3 percent, the IMF estimates that the world economy will grow at 3.5 percent in 2012. With world population growth at 1 percent, humanity will get about 2.5 percent wealthier by traditional standards. According to the World Bank, extreme poverty ($1.25/day) has fallen from 1.94 billion people (52 percent of the world) in 1981 to 1.29 billion (about 20 percent) in 2010, while world population increased from 4.5 billion to nearly 7 billion during the same time. At this rate, however, about one billion people might still be living in extreme poverty in 2015.11 World unemployment grew to 9 percent in 2011 from 8.3 percent in 2010.12 The landscape of geo-economic power is changing rapidly as the influence of BRIC and other emerging economies as well as of multinational enterprises is rising. Lower- and middle-income countries with surplus labor will be needed in higher-income countries with labor shortages. This could continue the brain drain problem, yet online computer matching systems can connect those overseas to the development process back home.

The 2012 State of the Microcredit reports that the number of very poor families receiving a microloan rose from 7.6 million in 1997 to 137.5 million in 2010, affecting more than 687 million people. The rapid increase of entrepreneurship, self-employment and SMEs, plus global communications and an international division of labor that develop new forms of business governance and relationships, all have the potential to raise living standards and reduce income disparities among nations.

Ethical market economies require improved fair trade, increased economic freedom, a “level playing field” guaranteed by an honest judicial system with adherence to the rule of law, and by governments that provide political stability, a chance to participate in local development decisions, reduced corruption, insured property rights, business incentives to comply with social and environmental goals, a healthy investment climate, and access to land, capital, and information. Approximately one billion people in ninety-six countries now belong to a cooperative, according to the International Co-operative Alliance. Since half of the world’s major economies are multinationals, these businesses play a crucial role in poverty alleviation and in building a sustainable economic system. Direction from central government with relatively free markets is competing with the decentralized, individualized private enterprise for lifting people out of poverty. The world needs a long-term strategic plan for a global partnership between rich and poor. Such a plan should use the strength of free markets and rules based on global ethics.

Humanity, the built environment, and ubiquitous computing are becoming a continuum of consciousness and technology reflecting the full range of human behavior, from individual philanthropy to organized crime. New forms of civilization will emerge from this convergence of minds, information, and technology worldwide.

The health of humanity continues to improve. The incidence of infectious diseases is falling, as is mortality from such diseases as malaria, measles, and even HIV/AIDS.13 New HIV infections have declined 21 percent over the past 12 years, and AIDS-related deaths dropped by 19 percent between 2004 and 2010.14 The US Food and Drug Administration have approved Truvada, the first drug approved to reduce the risk of HIV infection in uninfected individuals.15 However, a new infectious disease has been discovered each year over the past forty years, twenty diseases are now drug-resistant, and old diseases have reappeared, such as cholera, yellow fever, plague, diphtheria, and several others. In the last six years, more than 1 100 epidemics have been verified. International collaboration to reduce HIV, SARS, and H1N1 (swine flu) has built better global health systems. The dramatic improvements in health and medical services over the past twenty years could be reduced by the ongoing economic problems that are cutting health budgets around the world. The global public debt is about $40 trillion, while the world’s GDP in 2012 is about $80 trillion (PPP). Bill Gates and others supporting health programs are pleading with G20 governments to keep their pledges of $80 billion annually from 2015 onward to create a healthier world.16 Because the world is aging and is increasingly sedentary, cardiovascular disease is now the leading cause of death in the developing as well as the industrial world. However, infectious diseases are the second largest killer and cause about 67 percent of all preventable deaths of children under five (pneumonia, diarrhea, malaria, and measles). Nevertheless, the last twenty years have seen a 30-percent drop in deaths of children under five. Mortality from infectious disease fell from 25 percent in 1998 to less than 16 percent in 2010.17

High-density population growth and slow progress in sanitation in poorer areas keep many preventable diseases active. Some of the largest health impacts remain schistosomiasis (200 million cases), dengue fever (50 million new cases a year), measles (30 million cases a year), onchocerciasis (18 million cases in Africa), typhoid and leishmaniasis (approximately a million each globally), rotavirus (600 000 child deaths per year), and shigella childhood diarrhea (600 000 deaths per year).18 The best ways to address epidemic disease remain early detection, accurate reporting, prompt isolation, and transparent information and communications infrastructure, with increased investment in clean drinking water, sanitation, and handwashing. WHO’s eHealth systems, smartphone technology, international health regulations, immunization programs, and the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network are other essentials of the needed infrastructure.

The acceleration of change and interdependence, plus the proliferation of choices and the growing number of people and cultures involved in decisions, increases uncertainty, unpredictability, ambiguity, and surprise. This increasing complexity is forcing humans to rely more and more on expert advice and computers. Just as the autonomic nervous system runs most biological decision-making, so too are computer systems increasingly making the day-to-day decisions of civilization. The acceleration of change reduces the time from the recognition of the need to make a decision to completion of all the steps to make the right decision. As a result, many of the world’s institutions and decision-making processes are inefficient, slow, and ill informed. Institutional structures are not anticipating and responding quickly enough to the acceleration of change; hence, social unrest is likely to continue until new structures provide better management. This may also trigger a return to the city and subregional cooperation as the locus of policy leadership and management. Today’s challenges cannot be addressed by governments, corporations, NGOs, universities, and intergovernmental bodies acting alone; hence, transinstitutional decision-making has to be developed, and common platforms have to be created for transinstitutional strategic decision-making and implementation.

Although the vast majority of the world is living in peace, half the world continues to be vulnerable to social instability and violence due to growing global and local inequalities, falling water tables, increasing energy demands, outdated institutional structures, inadequate legal systems, and increasing costs of food, water, and energy. In local areas of worsening political, environmental, and economic conditions, increasing migrations can be expected, which in turn can create new conflict.19 Add in the future effects of climate change, and there could be up to 400 million migrants by 2050,20 further increasing conditions for conflict. Yet the probability of a more peaceful world is increasing due to the growth of democracy, international trade, global news media, the Internet, NGOs, satellite surveillance, better access to resources, and the evolution of the UN and other international and regional organizations.

Ethical market economies require improved fair trade, increased economic freedom, a “level playing field” guaranteed by an honest judicial system with adherence to the rule of law, and by governments that provide political stability and business incentives.

The number of nuclear weapons has fallen from 65 000 in 1985 to 11 540 in 2011.21 Wars — as defined by 1 000 or more battle-related deaths — have been steadily decreasing over the past two decades, although the past two years have seen an increase, mainly due to the Arab Spring/Awakening.22 Terrorism is changing from transnationally organized attacks to attacks by small groups and single individuals.23 Mail-order DNA and future desktop molecular and pharmaceutical manufacturing could one day give single individuals the ability to make and use weapons of mass destruction from biological weapons. Ubiquitous sensor systems in public spaces plus better mental health and education systems will be needed to reduce such future threats. Governments and industrial complexes find themselves under multiple daily cyberattacks (espionage or sabotage) from other governments, competitors, hackers, and organized crime. It seems intellectual software arms races will be inevitable. Backcasted peace scenarios should be created through participatory processes to show plausible alternatives to the full range of conflict possibilities.

The empowerment of women has been one of the strongest drivers of social evolution over the past century and is acknowledged as essential for addressing the global challenges facing humanity. Women are increasingly engaged in decision-making, promoting their own views and demanding accountability. Women account for 19.8 percent of the membership of national legislative bodies worldwide, and in thirty-two countries the figure is over 30 percent. Women represent 14.3 percent of the total 273 presiding officers in parliaments.24 There are twenty women heads of state or government. Patriarchal structures are increasingly challenged around the world. Women hold 41 percent of the world’s paid employment, but hold 20 percent of senior manager positions.25 The process toward gender political-economic equality seems irreversible. Meanwhile, violence against women is the largest war today, as measured by deaths and casualties per year. In some areas, violence against women at one point in their lives can be as high as 70 percent.26 About 70 percent of people living in poverty are women, who also account for 64 percent of the 775 million adult illiterates.27

The world is slowly waking up to the enormity of the threat of transnational organized crime (TOC), but it has not adopted a global strategy to counter it. In the absence of such a strategy, TOC income has grown to more than $3 trillion a year. Its potential ability to buy and sell government decisions could make democracy an illusion. Havocscope.com estimates the total black market in only 91 of 196 countries in the world to be valued at $1.93 trillion. There is a degree of double accounting in some of these numbers, but to share the scope of Havocsope’s estimates: corruption and bribery represent $1.6 trillion; money laundering, $1.4 trillion; counterfeiting and intellectual property piracy, $654 billion; global drug trade, $411 billion; financial crimes, $194 billion; environmental crimes, $138 billion; and human trafficking and prostitution, $240 billion. These figures do not include extortion and data from 105 countries; hence, the total organized crime income could be over $3 trillion — about twice as big as all the military budgets in the world.

The UN Office on Drugs and Crime has called on all states to develop national strategies to counter TOC as a whole. This could provide input to the development and implementation of global strategy and coordination. It is time for an international campaign by all sectors of society to develop a global consensus for action against TOC. OECD’s Financial Action Task Force has made forty good recommendations to counter money laundering, but these crimes continue unabated. Two conventions help bring some coherence to addressing TOC: the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, which came into force in 2003; and the Council of Europe’s Convention on Laundering, which came into force in May 2008. Possibly through an addition to one of these conventions or the International Criminal Court, a financial prosecution system could be established as a new body to complement the related organizations addressing various parts of TOC. In cooperation with these organizations, the new system would identify and establish priorities on top criminals (defined by the amount of money laundered) to be prosecuted one at a time. It would prepare legal cases, identify suspects’ assets that can be frozen, establish the current location of the suspect, assess the local authorities’ ability to make an arrest, and send the case to one of a number of preselected courts. Such courts, like UN peacekeeping forces, could be identified and trained before being called into action, so as to be ready for instant duty. Once all these conditions were met, then all the orders would be executed at the same time to apprehend the criminal, freeze access to the assets, open the court case, and then proceed to the next TOC leader on the priority list. Prosecution would be outside the accused’s country. Although extradition is accepted by the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, a new protocol would be necessary for courts to be deputized like military forces for UN peacekeeping, via a lottery system among volunteer countries. After initial government funding, the system would receive its financial support from the frozen assets of convicted criminals rather than depending on government contributions.

In just thirty-eight years, the world should create enough electrical production capacity for an additional 3.3 billion people. There are 1.3 billion people (20 percent of the world) without electricity today,28 and an additional 2 billion people will be added to the world’s population between now and 2050. Compounding this is the requirement to decommission aging nuclear power plants and to replace or retrofit fossil fuel plants. About 3 billion people still rely on traditional biomass for cooking and heating.29 If the long-term trends toward a wealthier and more sophisticated world continue, our energy demands by 2050 could be more than expected. However, the convergences of technologies are accelerating to make energy efficiencies far greater by 2050 than most would believe possible today. So the world is in a race between making a fundamental transition to safer energy fast enough, and the growing needs of an expanding and wealthier population.

About half of the new energy generation capacity comes from renewable sources today.30 IPCC’s best-case scenario31 estimates that renewable sources could meet 77 percent of global energy demand by 2050, while the World Wildlife Fund claims 100 percent is possible.32 The costs of geothermal, wind, solar, and biomass are falling. Setting a price for carbon emissions could increase investments. If the full financial and environmental costs for fossil fuels were considered — mining, transportation, protecting supply lines, water for cooling, cleanups, waste storage, and so on — then renewables will be seen as far more cost-effective than they are today. Without major breakthroughs in technologies and behavioral changes, however, the majority of the world’s energy in 2050 will still come from fossil fuels. In 2010, the world spent $409 billion on fossil fuel subsidies,33 about $110 billion more than in 2009, encouraging inefficient and unsustainable use.

The continued acceleration of science and technology (S&T) is fundamentally changing what is possible, and access to the S&T knowledge that is changing prospects for the future is becoming universal. Computational chemistry, computational biology, and computational physics are changing the nature of science, the acceleration of which is attached to Moore’s law. R&D on 3-D printers is merging the industrial, information, and biological revolutions. Synthetic biology is assembling DNA from different species in new combinations to create lower-cost biofuels, more precise medicine, healthier food, new ways to clean up pollution, and future capabilities beyond current belief. Swarms of nanorobots are being developed that should be able to manage nano-scale building blocks for novel material synthesis and structures, component assembly, and self-replication and repair. Although synthetic biology and nanotech promise to make the extraordinary gains in efficiencies needed for sustainable development, their environmental health impacts are in question. CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, announced that it has discovered a Higgs-like boson particle that might explain the fundamental ability of particles to acquire mass, giving rise to future applications of energy and matter unimaginable today. We need a global collective intelligence system to track S&T advances, forecast consequences, and document a range of views so that all can understand the potential consequences of new S&T.

The acceleration of S&T change seems to grow beyond conventional means of ethical evaluation. Is it ethical to clone ourselves or bring dinosaurs back to life or to invent thousands of new life forms from synthetic biology? Public morality based on religious metaphysics is challenged daily by growing secularism, leaving many unsure about the moral basis for decision-making. Many turn back to old traditions for guidance, giving rise to the fundamentalist movements in many religions today. Unfortunately, religions and ideologies that claim moral superiority give rise to “we–they” splits that are being played out in conflicts around the world. The moral will to act in collaboration across national, institutional, religious, and ideological boundaries that is necessary to address today’s global challenges requires global ethics.

Collective responsibility for global ethics in decision-making is embryonic but growing. Corporate social responsibility programs, ethical marketing, and social investing are increasing. New technologies make it easier for more people to do more good at a faster pace than ever before. Single individuals initiate groups on the Internet, organizing actions worldwide around specific ethical issues. News media, blogs, mobile phone cameras, ethics commissions, and NGOs are increasingly exposing unethical decisions and corrupt practices. Advance software experts in the self-organizing international group called Anonymous have become a new force increasing world attention to help the Arab Spring, Wikileaks, the Occupy movement, and opposition to police brutality.

Global ethics are emerging around the world through the evolution of ISO standards and international treaties that are defining the norms of civilization. They may also be evolving from protests around the world that show a growing unwillingness to tolerate unethical decision-making by power elites. The proliferation and scope of unethical decisions that led to the 2008 financial crisis seem not to have been addressed sufficiently to prevent future crises. We need to create better incentives for ethics in global decisions, promote parental guidance to establish a sense of values, encourage respect for legitimate authority, support the identification and success of the influence of role models, implement cost-effective strategies for global education for a more enlightened world, and make behavior match the values people say they believe in. Entertainment media could promote memes like “make decisions that are good for me, you, and the world.”

Collective responsibility for global ethics in decision-making is embryonic but growing. Corporate social responsibility programs, ethical marketing, and social investing are increasing. New technologies make it easier for more people to do more good at a faster pace than ever before.

Some conclusions distilled from sixteen years of research on the global challenges

Without a serious focus on green growth, falling water tables, rising food/water/energy prices, population growth, resource depletion, climate change, terrorism, and changing disease patterns, catastrophic results around the world are likely and will force migrations over the next few decades to make much of the world increasingly unstable. To prevent this, fortunes will be made in areas such as green nanotech manufacturing, synthetic biology for medicine and energy, methods to increase human intelligence, retrofitting energy plants to produce construction material and buildings to produce energy, transferring agriculture from freshwater to saltwater on coastal regions of the word, electric vehicles, growing pure meat without growing animals, and using the principles of urban systems ecology to make cities become conscious technologies.

The global challenges facing humanity are transnational in nature and transinstitutional in solution. No government, international organization, or other form of institution acting alone can solve the problems described in this report: climate change, cybersecurity threats, organized crime, rich–poor gaps, environmental pollution, international finance, gender discrimination, changing disease situations, and the need for sustainable development. The world may have to move from governance by a mosaic of sometimes conflicting national government policies to a world increasingly governed by coordinated and mutually supporting global policies implemented at national and local levels.

Although many people criticize globalization’s potential cultural impacts, it is increasingly clear that cultural change is necessary to address global challenges. The development of genuine democracy requires cultural change, preventing the transmission of AIDS requires cultural change, sustainable development requires cultural change, ending discrimination against women requires cultural change, and ending ethnic violence requires cultural change.

Economic growth and technological innovation have led to better health and living conditions than ever before for more than half the people in the world, but unless our financial, economic, environmental, and social behaviors are improved along with our industrial technologies, the long-term future is in jeopardy.

Many see the world as a fixed-pie, zero-sum game, with someone’s gain becoming another’s loss. Others see an expanding pie, grown by new efficiencies and innovations, “a rising tide lifting all boats.” And a few others see the world as an exponential growth of pies — with the Internet redistributing the means of production in the knowledge economy, cutting through old hierarchical controls in politics, economics, and finance. They expect a world of unlimited possibilities and think that synergetic analysis will create a better world than decisions based solely on competitive analysis. Countering the “me-first, short-term profits” mindset may be essential to engaging the world in more serious consideration of long-term strategies.

Economic growth and technological innovation have led to better health and living conditions than ever before for more than half the people in the world, but unless our financial, economic, environmental, and social behaviors are improved along with our industrial technologies, the long-term future is in jeopardy. The world needs a long-term strategic plan for improving the human condition for all.

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The World’s Biggest Problems Are Interconnected. Here’s How We Can Solve Them This Decade

T wo decades ago, people around the world rang in the new millennium with a growing sense of optimism. The threat posed by the Cold War was fading slowly in the rearview mirror. Leading thinkers like Francis Fukuyama touted the benefits of globalization , saying it would bring democracy and prosperity to the developing world. The nascent Internet economy promised to bring us closer together.

The following 20 years took some of the air out of the assumption of steady progress, but when future historians assess the 21st century, the year 2020 is likely to serve as the point at which the optimism bubble burst. The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed a complex web of interlocking problems that have morphed into full-blown crises. The coronavirus laid bare the dangers of endemic poverty not only in the developing world but also in rich countries like the U.S., where millions lack health care and are one paycheck away from living on the street. Around the world, racial and ethnic minorities have demanded justice after centuries of structural discrimination. Woven through it all, the earth’s climate is increasingly unstable, posing an existential threat to human society as we know it. In the next decade, societies will be forced to either confront this snarl of challenges, or be overwhelmed by them. Our response will define the future for decades to come.

The recognition that these challenges are fundamentally linked isn’t new. Activists and academics have for many years pointed to the cascading effects of various social ills. Whether it’s the way racism contributes to poor health outcomes or gender discrimination harms economic growth , the examples are seemingly endless. But this understanding has made its way into the conversation about solutions too.

Notably, for the past five years, the U.N. has touted 17 interrelated sustainable development goals, objectives for building a more viable world, and called for a push to achieve them by 2030. The goals, which cover environmental, social and economic progress, are nonbinding but have become key benchmarks for commitments at a national and corporate level. Countries from China to the Maldives, as well as companies like Amazon , Microsoft and PwC, have committed to rolling out policies over the next decade that will set them on a path to eliminate their carbon footprints.

The understanding that these problems require holistic solutions has only grown amid the pandemic and its fallout. President Joe Biden has referred to four urgent crises—the pandemic, the economic crisis, racial injustice and climate change—and promised a push to tackle them all together. The European Union’s program to propel the bloc out of the COVID-19 crisis targets climate change, while incorporating equity concerns. As stock markets soared last year, institutions with trillions of dollars in assets demanded that their investments deliver not only a good return for their wallets but also a good return for society.

All these developments and many more have created new opportunities for bold ideas . These new ways of thinking will come from government leaders, to be sure, but also from activists, entrepreneurs and academics. Here, our eight inaugural members of the 2030 committee offer their own specific solutions—and in them, perhaps, the seeds of 21st century optimism.

This appears in the February 1, 2021 issue of TIME.

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Essay: The World’s Biggest Crisis Is the End of Scarcity

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The World’s Biggest Crisis Is the End of Scarcity

How our era of plenty has created the global problems that plague us today..

• United States

Imagine an alien observer, sent undercover to Earth every half-century, to account for the status of human life on the planet. What would she convey to her extraterrestrial colleagues about 2024?

This article is adapted from The Taming of Scarcity and the Problems of Plenty: Rethinking International Relations and American Grand Strategy in a New Era , Francis J. Gavin, Routledge, 106 pp., $16.95, March 2024.

Before taking her trip, she would peruse her previous reports, noting a few things. In 1974, the world’s leading democratic power, the United States, was in geopolitical retreat and domestic disarray, while the authoritarian Soviet Union appeared increasingly powerful. The most populated state in the world, a Mao Zedong-led China, possessed an economy barely above subsistence level, while the second most populous nation, India, was scarcely better. The global economy suffered from both inflation and slow growth, marked by a chaotic international monetary and financial system. Wars or the threat of wars, both civil and interstate, were ever present in every part of the globe. Nuclear Armageddon hung like a sword of Damocles over the planet.

1974’s report, however, was absolutely Pollyannaish compared to 1924’s. One horrific world war had concluded while laying the seeds for another even more murderous. Imperialism shaped the international order, as a significant percentage of the world’s population was ruled or exploited by European capitals thousands of miles away. A steep economic depression had just ended but was only a precursor to a far deeper, more devastating financial collapse a few years later. Racism, misogyny, and intolerance were the norm. This, however, was paradise compared to the previous chronicle. 1874’s report pointed out that global life expectancy was only 30 and that few living people had not, at some point in their life, been visited by personal and communal violence, deadly disease, misrule and misgovernance, and the threat of famine and disaster. Each preceding half-century report was, in fact, more dire than the last.

The soup line in New York City, circa 1929. Bettman Archives/via Getty Images

Seen from this historical perspective, the alien could send a positively glowing report back home. In 2024, famine and illiteracy have been dramatically reduced, and life expectancy has more than doubled over the past century. Unimaginable volumes of wealth are generated; staggering amounts of information are available to ordinary people, instantaneously; and transformative new labor and lifesaving technologies are created every day. Genocide is rare; tolerance, not prejudice, is increasingly a shared norm; formal colonialism has been thrown on the dustbin of history; and economic recessions are unlikely to turn into crippling depressions.

Most importantly, the incentives for states to fully mobilize their societies to pursue total wars of conquest—perhaps the most pervasive and frightening aspect of world politics in her past chronicles—have all but disappeared. Indeed, states are now expected to protect and provide benefits to their citizens, instead of simply using them as military fodder to vanquish foes and seize land. Ideas and innovation, not territory, are the sources of power in this new world.

In short, the world has made unimaginable progress in taming the steep challenges of scarcity that had plagued humanity for millennia and had been one of the core drivers of total wars for plunder, empire, and conquest. But the success in creating a more prosperous, informed, and secure world for humanity has, unexpectedly, generated a whole new set of planetary challenges that, if not resolved, threatens disaster, if not human extinction.

The remarkable progress in generating unimaginable levels of wealth, information, and security has created the new, more vexing, and arguably more dangerous problems of plenty—unexpected and potentially catastrophic challenges that were created, ironically, by humanity’s impressive efforts to tame scarcity.

Drone to Yacht, an exclusive delivery service, drops a bag of food to boats near Ibiza on Aug. 24, 2021. Jaime Reina/AFP via Getty Images

Five revolutionary shifts were key in creating our present era of plenty. First, an unexpected and voluntary demographic compression unfolded in the developed world, with birth rates falling precipitously while life expectancy markedly expanded; as median ages increased and population growth slowed, the need to conquer additional territory abated. Second, an economic-technological revolution emerged that massively improved agricultural yields and the availability of food, dramatically boosted industrial productivity, and transformed finance capitalism, while improving transportation, housing, and health, and making accessible, affordable fuel bountiful. Third, an information revolution took place, whereby increased literacy and technological change significantly expanded the amount of access to knowledge about the world. Fourth, leaders of the developed world created domestic and international governing institutions and practices, which, among other benefits, generated far greater domestic stability and socio-economic well-being, eliminated great depressions, and provided increased personal as well as collective security, creating a political order that prized order, sovereignty, and, in time, human rights. Finally, ground-breaking new military capabilities, especially thermonuclear weapons, prohibitively increased the costs and risks of great-power wars of conquest.

These revolutions combined to reduce the shadow of famine, disease, and misery that had long fallen upon the human experience, massively increasing total wealth and information while weakening core drivers of territorial expansion, immeasurably improving the quality of life in the developed world. Populations stabilized and aged; food, resources, and markets became more abundant; and disintermediated flows of information exploded.

So what exactly are the problems of plenty? The current world order produces great material output, generated by increasing global exchange, but distributing it fairly among and between populations is contentious. This enormous prosperity generated by the burgeoning trade and industrial prowess has spawned grave risks of climate, ecological, migratory, and public-health catastrophes. The emergence of new technologies, developed largely in the private sector, has solved innumerable problems, while also creating frightening new ones. Surprisingly, an unlimited amount of data and information, no longer intermediated by legacy institutions, generates different though equally fraught dangers as scarce information controlled by religious institutions or the state.

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As Jonathan S. Blake and Nils Gilman point out in their forthcoming book, Children of a Modest Star , the list of threats to human welfare, life, and the planet itself generated by plenty is daunting: “climate change, pandemic diseases, stratospheric ozone depletion, atmospheric aerosol loading, space junk, growing antibiotic resistance, biodiversity loss, anthropogenic genetic disruptions, declining soil health, upended nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, freshwater depletion, ocean acidification, oceanic plastics—and maybe even emerging technologies with terraforming potential, like bioengineering and artificial intelligence.”

A key feature of the age of plenty is the extraordinary ability to move massive quantities of ideas, money, goods, and especially people around the world quickly, irrespective of borders and territory. But this revolution in transmission does not simply enable good citizens and products to move around the world: unwanted agents—from pathogens to terrorists to bad ideas—can also move far more quickly and effortlessly, often with devastating consequences. Expectations have also been dramatically raised while left unmet. While the age of abundance has promoted tolerance and radical individuality, it has also undermined social cohesion and weakened the sense of common purpose needed to confront these challenges. Governing norms and institutions developed to successfully tame scarcity have been exposed as ill-suited to confront contemporary challenges, generating a crisis of political legitimacy and stoking polarization.

Families arrive to board a train at Kramatorsk central station as they flee Kramatorsk, in the Donbas region of Ukraine on April 4, 2022. Fadel Senna/AFP via Getty Images

In an era of plenty where empire, plunder, and conquest make little sense, how should we understand the current turmoil in world politics, marked by atrocities in the Middle East, Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, and the deepening tensions between the world’s two most powerful states, China and the United States? Why are the leading powers seemingly focused on issues that resonated in the world of scarcity, particularly great-power rivalry and war, while offering inadequate responses to the pressing issues generated by a world of plenty? There are many reasons, but three stand out.

First, Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine is the exception that proves the rule, revealing the dangers of strategic decisions based on outdated assumptions about conquest. From a narrow national-interest perspective, a desire to control the Donbas made some sense in 1900, when its abundant coal, wheat, defense in depth, and pliant population added to Russia’s power in a world shaped by scarcity and where empire and conquest were the norm. Today, in an age when food and fuel are historically cheap and abundant, land less valuable, conquered territories much more difficult to subdue, alternative grand strategies far more promising, and the world both aghast by and willing to punish Russia for its violations of the norms of sovereignty and human rights, even a successful conquest of Ukraine was unlikely to make Russia much more powerful in the long run. There are many important differences between America’s disastrous post-9/11 wars in the greater Middle East and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both, however, reflect poor grand-strategic decisions based on profound misreadings of the nature of power and the incentives of the contemporary international system, misunderstanding the increased difficulty and decreased payoff for using force to conquer territories or subdue uncooperative populations in the age of plenty.

Second, it is important to recognize that there are many causes of war and conflict beyond plunder and imperial conquest. In particular, we must distinguish between the imperial conquest of the past—or an expansive, often unlimited impulse to add territory and colonies—and irredentism, or the finite desire of a state to reclaim territory it believes it has unfairly lost. The most dangerous places in the world—Kashmir, the Korean Peninsula, the Middle East, and the Taiwan Strait—are often where states are willing to fight, at great cost, to regain territory they believe is naturally and historically their own. While they may seem similar, imperial conquest and irredentism are driven by significantly different factors and forces, are shaped by different cost-benefit calculations, and demand different grand-strategic responses.

Whether China’s ambitions to take Taiwan is an example of irredentism or the desire for global domination is a critical question. Regardless of China’s ultimate goal, however, the changing circumstances wrought by the age of plenty make the return of an imperial, ever-expanding Eurasian empire similar to Napoleonic France, Nazi Germany, imperial Japan, or Stalin’s Soviet Union very unlikely. Unlike states and empires during the age of scarcity, China has no reason to fear being conquered, nor, even if it wanted to, could it easily invade, occupy, and take over neighbors like India, Japan, and Southeast Asian states, especially if a future successful takeover of Taiwan generated widespread military balancing and nuclear proliferation in the region. In the age of plenty, China might soon discover that the cost-benefit ratio of conquest has been completely inverted over the past century. Even if Beijing wished to pursue imperial conquest, it is hard to imagine how it could succeed, and, if it tried, it would risk its own defeat and collapse.

Finally, it often takes some time—sometimes decades—for people, institutions, and states to understand when their environment and circumstances have changed and to update their assumptions, conceptual lenses, and policy practices accordingly. Millenia of conquest, empire, and violent revolutions—and governing institutions built to deal with those crises—have left deep scars and unchallenged assumptions, and states, leaders, and populations have been slow to recognize the profound changes in demographics, technology, economics, and socio-cultural realities that have done much to tame scarcity while abetting the problems of plenty.

This myopia can come at a steep cost. Today’s leaders may share the characteristics of their tragic predecessors on the eve of World War I. Faced with a rapidly changing world and global phenomena they do not understand, they fall back on their long-held, unspoken, and often unexamined beliefs about how the world should work, as opposed to trying to better understand how the world does work. As terrifying as the problems of scarcity and the geopolitical behaviors they unleash can be, at least they are familiar. Leading powers and their leaders and institutions understand how to play the great-power political game that dominated the past. The problems of plenty, and the solutions required, are unfamiliar, disorienting, and vexing. Yet a melting planet, mass migrations, another even more lethal pandemic, destabilizing new technologies, and the cancers of inequality, deep polarization, and sociocultural fragmentation and alienation threaten the United States and the planet far more than the kind of expanding industrial, mobilized Eurasian hegemon that plagued the first half of the 20th century.

An IBM computer center that processes agricultural data to produce projected figures for farming, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, circa 1973. Alan Band/ Getty Images Archive

How would our alien friend end her report? She would point out that the institutions, practices, theories, and policies that successfully tamed scarcity—and that dominated current debates—were woefully ill-suited to meet the problems of plenty. The costs of failing to update core, often unspoken assumptions about how the world works and what matters would be highlighted, and that by preparing for the last war, Earth might tragically and unnecessarily get it. Her report would chide the thinkers and statesmen of 2024 for obsessing over the return of great-power competition and regurgitating the works of geopolitical thinkers like Mahan and Mackinder in order to control oceans and land that, if the problems of plenty are not confronted, may be dying and uninhabitable before long.

Visiting the planet every half-century has made her, unlike her Earth friends, an optimist. Humankind never goes the easy way around, and given the stakes, they could easily mess up—by starting World War III or being unprepared for a more lethal pandemic than COVID-19, unrestrained artificial intelligence, or the deadly consequences of the climate crisis. She reminds herself, and wishes the citizens of the planet could remember, that few living in 1974, 1924, or 1874 could have imagined the extraordinary progress earthlings have made since. Which, perhaps against her better judgment, gives her hope that she will get to visit in 2074 and be impressed once again.

Francis J. Gavin is the Giovanni Agnelli distinguished professor and the director of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at SAIS-Johns Hopkins University. This essay is adapted from his most recent book, The Taming of Scarcity and the Problems of Plenty: Rethinking International Relations and American Grand Strategy in a New Era .

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Top 20 Current Global Issues We Must Address

What are the most pressing issues in the world today? What will demand the most attention in the next 5, 10, and 20+ years? In this article, which frequently refers to the World Economic Forum’s 17th Edition of the Global Risks Report, we’ll highlight 20 current global issues we must address, including issues related to climate change, COVID-19, social rights, and more. While it’s hardly a comprehensive discussion, it’s a solid introduction to the kinds of concerns facing our world today.

#1. Poverty

In fall 2022, the World Bank will update the International Poverty Line from $1.90 to $2.15. This means anyone living on less than $2.15 is in “extreme poverty.” Why the change? Increases in the costs of food, clothing, and shelter between 2011-2017 make the “real value of $2.15 in 2017 prices equal to $1.90 in 2011 prices. As for the World Bank’s goal to reduce extreme poverty to 3% or less by 2030, the pandemic has made it even harder. Extreme poverty isn’t the only poverty we have to contend with. 62% of the global population lives on less than $10/day. While there’s been progress over the years, the end of poverty is still far off.

Learn more about tackling poverty with an online course: Poverty & Population: How Demographics Shape Policy (Columbia University)

#2. Climate change

The IPCC released its sixth report in 2022. In its summary for policy-makers, the report’s authors outlined a series of near-term, mid-term, and long-term risks. If global warming reaches 1.5°C in the near term (2021-2040), it would cause “unavoidable increases in multiple climate hazards,” as well as “multiple risks to ecosystems and humans.” In the long term, climate change will present major health issues, premature deaths, risks to cities and settlements , and other dangers. Mitigation is desperately needed – and fast. Because of climate change ’s connection to other issues on this list, it’s one of the most serious challenges facing humanity.

Learn more about climate change with an online course: Science and Engineering of Climate Change (EDHEC Business School)

#3. Food insecurity

According to the 2022 Global Report on Food Crises , which is produced by the Global Network against Food Crises, the number of people in crisis or worse is the highest it’s been in the six years since the report has existed. Close to 193 million people were experiencing acute food insecurity in 2021, which is an increase of almost 40 million since 2020. This represents a staggering 80% increase since 2016. Causes include “economic shocks,” like an increase in global food prices. Domestic food price inflation in low-income countries also rose a lot. “Weather-related disasters” are also a big driver. For 15.7 million people in 15 countries, it was the primary driver of acute food insecurity.

Learn more about food insecurity with an online course: Feeding the World (University of Pennsylvania)

#4. Refugee rights

According to UNHCR, the war in Ukraine sparked the fastest-growing refugee crisis since WWII. Almost 6 million (as of May 10, 2022) people have fled. The UNCHR’s Refugee Brief , which compiles the week’s biggest refugee stories, has recently described situations in places like Somalia, where thousands of people were displaced due to severe drought. Between January and mid-April, more than 36,000 refugees from Nigeria, Mali, and Burkina Faso arrived in Niger. These are only a few examples of the refugee crises, which endangers already marginalized groups – like women and children – and puts them at an increased risk of trafficking , violence, and death.

Learn more about refugee rights with an online course: Refugees in the 21st Century (University of London)

#5. COVID-19

The WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic in March 2022. It will continue to be a major issue for the world. The WEF’s Global Risks Report 2022 discusses COVID’s effects at length , including major economic recovery disparities and social erosion. According to a January 2022 article from NPR , there are also issues with vaccinations as many countries continue to have trouble getting doses. Distribution, vaccine hesitancy, healthcare systems, and other problems also factor into low vaccination rates. While we may never know the exact impact, the WHO estimates that between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021, there were around 14.9 million excess deaths linked to COVID-19.

Learn more about the impact of COVID-19 with an online course: Life After COVID-19: Get Ready for our Post-Pandemic Future (Institute for the Future)

#6. Future pandemic preparation and response

COVID-19 taught the world the importance of prepardeness. In a Harvard blog , Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the WHO, outlined the lessons the world should take to heart. The first: science has to guide policy. The politicization of the pandemic led to a lot of unnecessary damage. Another lesson is that science must pair with equity or it can actually make inequalities worse. This is obvious when looking at how low-income countries struggled to get the vaccines while wealthier countries stocked up. More resilient healthcare systems are also a must, as well as more coherent, global plans on how to respond. The world must also invest in research on contagious diseases, zoonotic diseases, the effectiveness of outbreak responses, and more.

Learn more about future pandemic response with an online course: Pandemic preparedness, prevention, and response (Politecnico di Milano)

#7. Healthcare

The healthcare industry has experienced major shifts due to the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the World Economic Forum, there’s been new investments and innovations, especially from the technology and telehealth sectors. In 2021, $44 billion was spent on health innovation. The world will be seeing the effects of these innovations for years to come, though equity will no doubt be a major issue. In places like the United States, the pandemic also reaffirmed how broken healthcare systems can be. In an MIT News blog , Andrea Campbell, a professor of political science, says the pandemic revealed a “dire need” for investments in public-health infrastructure, as well as a need to expand healthcare access and insurance coverage.

Learn more about health inequity issues with an online course: Addressing Racial Health Inequity in Healthcare (University of Michigan)

#8. Mental health

Globally, almost 1 billion people have some form of mental disorder. The pandemic made the world’s mental health worse. According to a scientific brief from the WHO , there’s been a 25% increase in anxiety and depression worldwide. Causes include social isolation, fear of sickness, grief, and financial anxieties. Health workers were also severely impacted, as well as young women and girls. The brief also highlights how the pandemic disrupted many mental health services, including services for substance abuse. Countries need to ensure access to mental health services as part of their COVID-19 recovery plans and beyond. It’s an economic decision, as well. The Lancet states that anxiety and depression alone cost the global economy around $1 trillion a year.

Learn more about mental health with an online course: The Science of Well-Being (Yale University)

#9. Disability rights

According to the WHO , over 1 billion people have some form of disability. Half can’t afford healthcare. They’re also more likely to live in poverty than those without a disability, have poorer health outcomes, and have less access to work and education opportunities. Human Rights Watch lists other discriminations disabled people face, such as an increased risk of violence. There’s been progress regarding disability rights, but many countries lack strong protections. The world still has a long way to go to ensure equality for those with disabilities.

Learn more about disability rights with an online courses: Disability Awareness and Support (University of Pittsburgh)

#10. LGBTQ+ rights

Members of the LGBTQ+ community face discrimination in many forms. According to Amnesty International , discrimination can target sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, and sex characteristics. Even in more progressive countries like the United States, people face violence and discrimination. According to the Human Rights Campaign, more than 300 anti-LGBTQ+ bills were proposed in 2022. At least a dozen states are considering legislation that forbids schools from discussing or using a curriculum that covers sexual orientation and gender identity. Considering the United States’ influence in the world, this attack on LGBTQ+ rights will likely have consequences that need to be addressed.

Learn more about LGBTQ+ issues with an online courses .

#11. Reproductive justice

Reproductive justice – which encompasses more than just abortion rights – is threatened by legislation, lack of funding, lack of education, and restricted healthcare access. In most places, wealth is a big determinant of whether a person can access reproductive services. It’s better in some places than others, but as we’ve seen with other issues on this list, even “progressive” countries like the United States are experiencing major shifts. In June 2022, the Supreme Court is expected to overrule Roe v. Wade , a milestone court case that protected a pregnant woman’s right to abortion. The impact would be immediate and will likely influence other countries.

Learn more about reproductive justice and women’s rights: International Women’s Health and Human Rights (Stanford University)

#12. Children’s rights

Children are a very vulnerable group. In 2019, around 5.2 million children under five from mostly preventable and treatable causes. 2.4 million were newborns under 28 days old. Leading causes include preterm birth complications, pneumonia, and malaria. According to UNICEF, the climate crisis also represents a severe threat to kids. Around 1 billion kids live in “extremely high-risk countries” that are hit by the worst effects of climate change. 920 kids have trouble accessing clean water and 600 million are exposed to vector-borne diseases like malaria. Child labor also remains an issue. At the beginning of 2020, around 160 million were forced into labor while COVID-19 put 9 million more kids at risk. That’s almost 1 in 10 children globally. Almost half are in dangerous environments. As is often the case, the other issues on this list – climate change, poverty, COVID, gender equality, etc – factor into children’s rights.

Learn more about children’s rights: Children’s Human Rights – An Interdisciplinary Introduction (University of Geneva)

#13. Gender equality

Global gender equality has gradually improved over the years, but data from the 2021 Global Gender Report shows that the end of the global gender gap is still 135 years away. The pandemic played a huge role in reversing positive trends as women were hit harder financially. According to Oxfam , women experienced a 5% job loss while men experienced 3.9%. That means women lost about $800 million in 2020. This is a low estimate since it doesn’t count the informal economy, which includes millions of women. Women are also more likely to live in poverty, more affected by gender-based violence, and more affected by climate change.

Learn more about gender equality: Gender Analytics: Gender Equity through Inclusive Design (University of Toronto)

#14. Cybersecurity

The WEF’s Global Risks Report 2022 (page 9) listed cybersecurity vulnerabilities as a concern. The reason is rapid digitalization, which was triggered in part by COVID-19. Many “advanced economies” are now at a higher risk for cyberattacks. GRPS respondents identified cybersecurity failure as a critical short-term risk. In 2020, malware and ransomware attacks went up by 358% and 435%. There are a few reasons for this, including better (and easier) attack methods and poor governance. Cyberattacks have a swath of serious consequences and erode public trust. As countries become more dependent on digitalization, their cybersecurity needs to keep up.

Learn more about cybersecurity: IBM Cybersecurity Analyst Professional Certificate (IBM)

#15. Disinformation

Rapid digitalization comes with many issues, including the lightning-fast spread of disinformation. The WEF report describes deepfakes, an accessible AI technology, and its potential to sway elections and other political outcomes. Disinformation doesn’t need to be sophisticated to be successful, however. Through social media posts and videos, twelve anti-vax activists were responsible for almost ⅔ of all anti-vaccine content on platforms like Facebook and Twitter. Their content flooded the internet with the type of harmful, fear-mongering disinformation that played a significant role in vaccine hesitancy and political radicalization. Because disinformation travels faster online than the truth, it’s a global issue that should be addressed.

Learn more about tackling disinformation: Communicating Trustworthy Information in the Digital World (University of Rotterdam)

#16. Freedom of the press

According to the Varieties of Democracy Institute (as reported in The Economist ), about 85% of people live in a country where press freedom has gone down in the past 5 years. After peaking at .65 in the early 2000s and 2011, the global average dropped to .49 in 2021. Major countries like China, India, Russia, Brazil, and Turkey saw significant declines. Journalists and news organizations face threats like violence, imprisonment, lack of funding, and coordinated online attacks and harassment. A free press is essential to a functioning democracy. Without press freedom, all human rights are at risk.

Learn more about freedom of expression: Human Rights for Open Societies (Utrecht University)

#17. Debt crises

In the WEF Global Risks Report (page 7), respondents named debt crises as one of the most pressing issues over the next decade, though respondents believe they will become most serious in just 3-5 years. COVID-19 is a big reason why. Government stimulus was necessary, but many countries are now left with debt burdens. For corporate and public finances in large economies, debt burdens can lead to defaults, bankruptcies, insolvency, and more. This is a far-reaching issue as it affects budgets for areas like healthcare and green energy.

Learn more about the debt: Finance for everyone – Debt (McMaster University)

#18. Corruption

Corruption encompasses a host of actions such as bribery, election manipulation, fraud, and state capture. The World Bank Group names corruption as a barrier to ending extreme poverty and “boosting shared prosperity” for the poorest populations. When it comes to addressing poverty, climate change, healthcare, gender equality, and more, corruption gets in the way. Because corruption is a global problem, global solutions are necessary. Reform, better accountability systems, and open processes will all help.

Learn more about tackling corruption: What is Corruption: Anti-Corruption and Compliance (University of Pennsylvania)

#19. Authoritarianism

According to Freedom House, global democracy is eroding. That includes countries with long-established democracies. In their 2022 report, the organization reveals that global freedom has been declining for the past 16 years. 60 countries faced declines in the last year. Only 25 saw improvements. Only 20% of the global population lives in Free countries. China, Russia, and other authoritarian countries have gained more power in the international system, while countries with established democracies – like the United States – are losing their freedoms. What can be done? Freedom House says success “requires a bold, sustained response that establishes support for democracy and countering authoritarianism.” Governments and citizens engage and stand for democracy.

Learn more about tackling authoritarianism: Citizenship and the Rule of Law (University of London)

#20. Global cooperation

Addressing the issues in this article is not an easy task. True progress is only possible through global cooperation, a fact which is woven through the WEF report. Everything from addressing cybersecurity threats to humanitarian emergencies to protecting democracy depends on strong cooperation between countries. As the report says in its preface: “Restoring trust and fostering cooperation within and between countries will be crucial to addressing these challenges and preventing the world from drifting further apart.” The challenges threatening global cooperation are just as clear as the need, however, which makes it one of the most serious issues of the day.

Learn more about global cooperation: Global Diplomacy: the United Nations in the World

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About the author, emmaline soken-huberty.

Emmaline Soken-Huberty is a freelance writer based in Portland, Oregon. She started to become interested in human rights while attending college, eventually getting a concentration in human rights and humanitarianism. LGBTQ+ rights, women’s rights, and climate change are of special concern to her. In her spare time, she can be found reading or enjoying Oregon’s natural beauty with her husband and dog.

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Essay Samples on World Problems

Navigating global challenges: exploring pressing world problems.

World problems encompass a myriad of complex issues that impact societies, economies, and the environment on a global scale. In today's interconnected world, addressing these challenges requires collaboration, innovative solutions, and a shared commitment to creating a more equitable and sustainable future. This essay delves...

• World Problems

How Each Human Choice Leads to Destruction or to Protection

Protecting the environment is something I am passionate about and I think we all should be. We need to save our planet before its to late. Already the average temperature is 1C warmer in the 21st century than it was in the mid 20th century,...

• Environment Problems
• Environmental Issues

The Urgent Need for Environmental Sustainability and Human Responsibility

Environment or more so the eco system as we know it in common parlance is the habitat of human being and its surrounding flora and fauna, in which human being lives, interacts in multiple ways; which in turn seriously impacts and affects the human lives...

Preserving the Fragile Balance: Our Responsibility towards the Environment

All natural matters that make existence on earth possible encompass water, air, sunlight, land, fire, forests, animals, plants, and different dwelling and non-living environments. People suppose that the Earth is the solely planet in the universe that has the surroundings essential for life to survive....

Current Matter of Water Pollution in India: Cause and Effect

The Earth is composed largely of water and freshwater comprises only three percent of the total water available to humans. Out of total water available, only 0.06 percent is easily accessible--mostly in rivers, lakes, wells, and natural springs. The fresh water is exposed to a...

• Water Pollution
• Water Quality

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Environmental Conflicts in the South Durban Basin: Political Ecology

Political ecology approaches to vulnerability emerged in response to risk-hazard assessment to climate impacts and disasters. Political ecology of risks, hazards and, disasters based on the study of the South Durban Basin. Political ecology risk and hazard insists upon appraising inequalities, marginalization and unequal distribution...

The Biggest Threat to the Human Population: Food Security

When you think of the most prevalent problems facing the world, you may not think hunger to be high on the list, but hunger around the world has slowly grown since 2015 after decades of a gradual decline. In 2018, there were an estimated 821...

• Food Security
• Human Population

Human Population Leads to Environment Depopulation

'How is it possible that the most intellectual creature to ever walk on Earth is destroying its only home?' It is a question that truly challenged my mind and made me rethink some things. One of the first thoughts that had immediately popped into my...

Making World A Better Place By Helping Others

They will walk up to you, hold your shirt and won't let go off you until you give them money or food. Growing up, I've never liked just the sight of these refugees and children of disabled parents. I've always treated them with hostility and...

• Helping Others

Exploring Climate Change During Spring Break

There are many places around the world that will suffer from the common impacts of climate change. However, since Galveston, Texas is around an hour away from my house in Houston I chose to look at Galveston County and the similarities with the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta...

• Climate Change
• Spring Break

Understanding the Concept of Sociological Imagination Through the Bird Eye View

C. Wright Mills’, concept of sociological imagination is the understanding of personal problems being reflected by more global or public issues worldwide. It is thinking past your personal issues and looking at the influence it has on society. A good way of thinking about this...

• Social Imagination

Environmental Art Works Created By John Dahlsen

10 days ago, I entered the biggest and the most devastating typhoon in my life and so do my father, although we enter typhoon almost every year in our hometown. The road downstairs in my house turned into a logging farm. According to the local...

• Natural Environment

Earthquake In Ecuador In 2016 - A Horrifying Natural Disaster

A horrifying natural disaster impacted the Coastal of Manabi, Ecuador, on April 18, 2016. It was the most powerful earthquake to ever hit South America. The consequences were severely terrible which led to numerous of homes being shattered and leaving the community without a roof....

Apple Pest Management And Their Adaptation Practices Towards Climate Change

Apple production plays a vital socio-economic role in the Fes-Meknes region of Morocco. It is the main source of income for a large segment of small and medium-sized farmers in mountainous areas where it is considered among the most adapted tree crops to the edaphoclimatic...

• Factory Farming

The Effects Of Poverty On Society

Poverty is a problem within the world. Being so that most people that are in these conditions will not get any further because the economic resources and standards of living are extremely low and have no intentions of bettering. Society today has been taught those...

• Poverty in America

Best topics on World Problems

1. Navigating Global Challenges: Exploring Pressing World Problems

2. How Each Human Choice Leads to Destruction or to Protection

3. The Urgent Need for Environmental Sustainability and Human Responsibility

4. Preserving the Fragile Balance: Our Responsibility towards the Environment

5. Current Matter of Water Pollution in India: Cause and Effect

6. Environmental Conflicts in the South Durban Basin: Political Ecology

7. The Biggest Threat to the Human Population: Food Security

8. Human Population Leads to Environment Depopulation

9. Making World A Better Place By Helping Others

10. Exploring Climate Change During Spring Break

11. Understanding the Concept of Sociological Imagination Through the Bird Eye View

12. Environmental Art Works Created By John Dahlsen

13. Earthquake In Ecuador In 2016 – A Horrifying Natural Disaster

14. Apple Pest Management And Their Adaptation Practices Towards Climate Change

15. The Effects Of Poverty On Society

• Importance Of Water Conservation
• Importance Of Recycling
• Waste Problem
• Environmental Ethics
• Fossil Fuels

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Essay on Global Problems

Introduction.

Ideally, global problems are serious issues that the contemporary international community is experiencing. The global problems transcend the regional and national boundaries and affect the survival and development of the whole human race. In the current century, the world has developed, and with the integration of the international community, global problems are more produced. With globalization, individuals can live in any part of the world. As a result, global problems such as ecological imbalance, environmental pollution, shortage of resources, war, among others, exist. Therefore, global problems are natural consequences of unrestrained economic growth and modern globalization. One of the most severe global problems countries are facing is international terrorism. The international community has tried to solve global problems. However, the problem has been alleviated, not eradicated. Some reasons have contributed to the international community’s failure to solve global problems. This paper will discuss why the international community finds it difficult to solve global problems.

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5 World Problems To Write About 

5 World Problems to Write About

• Climate Crisis: Right now, many news publications have been reporting on one of today’s most known issues: climate change. Affecting millions of individuals around the world,  the current climate crisis is a problem that many activists and scientists are trying to solve. Some people like Greta Thunberg have made it their mission to educate the public on what is going on and how to involve themselves. First, it is important to write about this issue because it has drastic consequences on human lives. For example, studies show that climate change will displace about 200 million people by 2050, leaving them with no home. Second, climate change also has repercussions on the planet itself. Sea levels have risen approximately eight inches in the past century, and the Earth’s surface temperature has risen almost 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit as well.
• Food Security:  Quite a lot of today’s agriculture relies heavily on quick and easy access to water; however, access to natural resources such as water has grown limited due to its exploitation for other purposes. The lack of food security has contributed to the sharp increases in world hunger as people are not meeting their dietary needs. According to the United Nations, approximately 925 million people around the world go hungry either because they cannot afford food or because it is just too scarce. People need education about food security from the news, as many personal choices, such as wasting food, contribute to the problem.
• Lack of Education:  Another important issue to write about is the lack of education that is so persistent in many low-income areas. Currently, more than 759 million adults are illiterate and do not properly understand the consequences of lacking education. Not only does it limit the number of job opportunities available in the future, but it also has drastic effects on future generations. Many organizations such as the Association for Childhood Education International have identified the source of the issue and are determined to alienate it in the coming years. By empowering children and adults to pursue an education, it hopes to shed light on its importance and help individuals grow.
• Gender Inequality:  As the world progresses, it is important for society to acknowledge the age-old issue of gender inequality. Consequences such as wage discrepancies and stereotypical gender roles have limited many women across the world from achieving their full potential. According to the World Economic Forum , it will take almost 108 years to fully solve this issue; however, it is important that people write about gender inequality more often and educate the public to speed up that time. By understanding the full scope of the problem, men and women everywhere will have the empowerment to take action and fight for equality.
• Global Poverty:  Finally, one of the largest world problems around the world is global poverty, affecting almost half of the world’s population. Global poverty, in general, has economic and social consequences. Not only can it be very dangerous for one’s health, but it also has dire effects on the environment and physical landscape. To add, poverty can negatively affect economic growth by limiting the amount of money available to invest and increasing crime rates. The Borgen Project has been a key player in writing on this issue, raising money and spreading awareness globally. It has also been very active in legislature, advocating for certain bills to alleviate global poverty. Writing on this issue can increase its urgency and push for more individuals to involve themselves.

It is important for writers and journalists across the world to report on these world problems that are most prevalent in today’s society. The world problems to write about above are some of the most urgent problems to address, affecting many politically, economically and socially. By reporting on these topics more frequently, people have the education and empowerment to take action. After all, action can only happen after awareness.

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Globalization and Its Challenges Essay

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Globalization is a complex phenomenon which came into existence in the end of the twentieth century. Several decades ago it took days or even weeks for companies located in different countries to make a deal. Now it can be a matter of several hours. Interestingly, the word globalization is not new for people living in the twenty-first century, but sometimes the word is misused or misinterpreted.

Therefore, it is crucial to define the notion. Ukpere (2011, p. 6072) notes that globalization is “a state whereby national boundaries turn totally porous with respect to the movement of goods and capital and, to an extent, porous with respect to people, which is viewed… as cheap labor or, in some cases, cheap human capital”.

In other words, globalization presupposes no boundaries to business activity. The business activity is not confined to purely running business worldwide. Globalization also penetrates in such spheres of people’s life as education and even politics. The development of technology has enabled people to share information without paying any attention to location.

Many companies located in the developed countries shifted their facilities to developing countries. On the other hand, people from developing countries can look for jobs in developed countries. Basically, globalization has made the world smaller and more accessible, so to speak.

However, there are quite many negative effects. For instance, many people argue that globalization led to the global financial crisis in 2000s. These people state that various economies have become too interrelated. It is argued that some countries simply ‘shared’ their financial constraints with the rest of the world. There are many more challenges associated with globalization.

In the first place, people discuss problems developed countries face due to globalization. Thus, Rattner (2011) states that many people in developed countries lose as availability of workforce across the globe (e.g. China, India, Mexico, etc.) contributes greatly to the increase of unemployment within the country.

Rattner (2011) provides an example of the impact of globalization. The author focuses on such manufacturers as General Motors and Volkswagen. These giants shifted their capacities to other countries to reduce their expenditures. Admittedly, Americans are forced to work for lower wages as they understand that manufacturers can easily operate abroad.

Rattner (2011, n.p.) estimates that some workers will get $30,000 per year which can hardly be “the American dream of great middle-class jobs”. In fact, this is the major challenge for developed countries. Businesses are under constant pressure as growing economies of developing countries become more and more competitive.

Seemingly, developing countries benefit from globalization, but in reality globalization leads to great disproportions. On the one hand, many plants and factories are being built on the territory of these countries. Of course, this leads to new working places. However, these people do not obtain very big salaries. The conditions people have to work in are often very difficult or sometimes simply intolerable. Besides, the big enterprises coming to developing countries often become monopolies which dictate their own rules.

Ukpere (2011) also notes that globalization has led to increased levels of poverty and inequality. Admittedly, well-paid jobs are not available for the majority of people living in the developing countries. Those who manage to get a good job soon become much wealthier than the rest. This disproportion is caused by different opportunities. Thus, some people have access to information, knowledge, education, while others remain far from these ‘achievements of civilization’.

Therefore, it is possible to state that globalization has quite controversial effects. It helps some countries develop whereas other countries experience certain decline in their economy. Of course, economies have become interrelated, which is quite dangerous. As the global crisis has shown all economies become vulnerable if some country fails to keep the necessary balance.

It is also important to note that globalization contributes to marginalization of some countries (Ukpere, 2011). It is acknowledged that some countries lag behind due to some factors. They can be unattractive for investment. These countries may lack for professionals in some fields due to inaccessibility of education and training. Scarce resources also make countries unattractive for investors. Thus, it is possible to state that one of the major negative effects of globalization is that it creates disproportions.

Nonetheless, globalization should not be seen as something negative. People who simply oppose globalization (arrange protest walks) waste their time. First of all, the process is inevitable. Globalization can be regarded as a synonym to development. The development of technology has already removed boundaries. Besides, globalization has many positive effects which cannot be ignored. Thus, it is necessary to take advantage of positive effects, while trying to diminish negative effects of globalization.

Of course, government should cooperate to work out specific policies concerning global market. It is important to allocate funds wisely. No country should be left aside. Admittedly, all countries have something particularly valuable for the global market. Though, at first not all the countries can be involved in the operations on the global market. However, the boundaries should expand gradually. The example of the European Union is one of the illustrations that global market can be real. The experience of the EU can also be really valuable when developing the policies. Admittedly, these policies should be quite strict to make businesses comply with the rules.

In this case, all countries will benefit from globalization. All countries will be involved in the development of the global market. This will lead to equal development of countries. Thus, developing countries will be able to reach the level of developed countries. Admittedly, such problems as famine or unemployment can be solved. It is only necessary to allocate resources (natural as well as human) appropriately. It has been acknowledged that people produce enough food and goods for the entire planet, but these goods are distributed disproportionately. Globalization will address the problem.

On balance, it is possible to note that globalization presupposes no boundaries for economic activities. Globalization is seen differently by different people. Some say it is a process which should be stopped. Some claim that globalization is a positive process which should be fostered. People have not come to a single conclusion on the matter. However, it is impossible to ignore the fact that globalization is still a promising process.

It can help people address such problems as disproportion of various resources. Eventually, globalization will help humanity develop. Of course, people will have to work together to benefit from globalization. This process presupposes mutual work of all governments. This may seem somewhat idealistic but people have no other choice. It is a fact that if a country in some part of the world experiences financial constraints, other countries of the globe will eventually experience the same problems. Thus, to succeed people will have to cooperate.

Reference List

Rattner, S. (2011). Let’s admit it: Globalization has losers . The New York Times . Web.

Ukpere, W.I. (2011). Globalization and the challenges of unemployment, income inequality and poverty in Africa. African Journal of Business Management, 5 (15).

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Home — Essay Samples — Environment — Water Scarcity — Water Shortage: A Global Crisis

Water Shortage: a Global Crisis

• Categories: Water Water Scarcity

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Published: Sep 12, 2023

Words: 503 | Page: 1 | 3 min read

Table of contents

The causes of water shortage, the consequences of water scarcity, potential solutions and mitigation strategies, conclusion: preserving the blue gold.

• Water Conservation: Promoting water-saving practices in agriculture, industry, and households can significantly reduce demand. This includes adopting efficient irrigation methods, fixing leaks, and implementing water recycling systems.
• Improved Infrastructure: Developing better water infrastructure, including dams, reservoirs, and distribution networks, can help manage and distribute water more effectively.
• Desalination: Investing in desalination technology can provide a source of freshwater in coastal regions where seawater can be converted into potable water.
• Rainwater Harvesting: Encouraging rainwater harvesting at the household and community levels can provide an additional source of freshwater, particularly in areas with irregular rainfall patterns.
• Policy and Governance: Implementing effective water management policies, regulating water use, and promoting international cooperation in water management are essential steps toward sustainability.

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The Growth of World Population: Analysis of the Problems and Recommendations for Research and Training (1963)

Chapter: world population problems, world population problems, the growth of world population.

The population of the world, now somewhat in excess of three billion persons, is growing at about two per cent a year, or faster than at any other period in man’s history. While there has been a steady increase of population growth during the past two or three centuries, it has been especially rapid during the past 20 years. To appreciate the pace of population growth we should recall that world population doubled in about 1,700 years from the time of Christ until the middle of the 17th century; it doubled again in about 200 years, doubled again in less than 100, and, if the current rate of population increase were to remain constant, would double every 35 years. Moreover, this rate is still increasing.

To be sure, the rate of increase cannot continue to grow much further. Even if the death rate were to fall to zero, at the present level of human reproduction the growth rate would not be much in excess of three and one-half per cent per year, and the time required for world population to double would not fall much below 20 years.

Although the current two per cent a year does not sound like an extraordinary rate of increase, a few simple calculations demonstrate that such a rate of increase in human population could not possibly continue for more than a few hundred years. Had this rate existed from the time of Christ to now, the world population would have increased in this period by a factor of about 7×10 16 ; in other words, there would be about 20 million individuals in place of each

person now alive, or 100 people to each square foot. If the present world population should continue to increase at its present rate of two per cent per year, then, within two centuries, there will be more than 150 billion people. Calculations of this sort demonstrate without question not only that the current continued increase in the rate of population growth must cease but also that this rate must decline again. There can be no doubt concerning this long-term prognosis: Either the birth rate of the world must come down or the death rate must go back up.

POPULATION GROWTH IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE WORLD

The rates of population growth are not the same, of course, in all parts of the world. Among the industrialized countries, Japan and most of the countries of Europe are now growing relatively slowly—doubling their populations in 50 to 100 years. Another group of industrialized countries—the United States, the Soviet Union, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Argentina—are doubling their populations in 30 to 40 years, approximately the world average. The pre-industrial, low-income, and less-developed areas of the world, with two thirds of the world’s population—including Asia (except Japan and the Asiatic part of the Soviet Union), the southwestern Pacific islands (principally the Philippines and Indonesia), Africa (with the exception of European minorities), the Caribbean Islands, and Latin America (with the exception of Argentina and Uruguay)—are growing at rates ranging from moderate to very fast. Annual growth rates in all these areas range from one and one-half to three and one-half per cent, doubling in 20 to 40 years.

The rates of population growth of the various countries of the world are, with few exceptions, simply the differences between their birth rates and death rates. International migration is a negligible factor in rates of growth today. Thus, one can understand the varying rates of population growth of different parts of the world by understanding what underlies their respective birth and death rates.

THE REDUCTION OF FERTILITY AND MORTALITY IN WESTERN EUROPE SINCE 1800

A brief, over-simplified history of the course of birth and death rates in western Europe since about 1800 not only provides a frame of reference for understanding the current birth and death rates in Europe, but also casts some light on the present situation and prospects in other parts of the world. A simplified picture of the population history of a typical western European country is shown in

Figure 1 . Schematic presentation of birth and death rates in western Europe after 1800. (The time span varies roughly from 75 to 150 years.)

Figure 1 . The jagged interval in the early death rate and the recent birth rate is intended to indicate that all the rates are subject to substantial annual variation. The birth rate in 1800 was about 35 per 1,000 population and the average number of children ever born to women reaching age 45 was about five. The death rate in 1800 averaged 25 to 30 per 1,000 population although, as indicated, it was subject to variation because of episodic plagues, epidemics, and crop failures. The average expectation of life at birth was 35 years or less. The current birth rate in western European countries is 14 to 20 per 1,000 population with an average of two to three children born to a woman by the end of childbearing. The death rate is 7 to 11 per 1,000 population per year, and the expectation of life at birth is about 70 years. The death rate declined, starting in the late 18th or early 19th century, partly because of better transport and communication, wider markets, and greater productivity, but more directly because of the development of sanitation and, later, modern medicine. These developments, part of the changes in the whole complex of modern civilization, involved scientific and technological advances in many areas, specifically in public health, medicine, agriculture, and industry. The immediate cause of the decline in the birth rate was the increased deliberate control of fertility within marriage. The only important exception to this statement relates to Ireland, where the decline in the birth rate was brought about by an increase of several years in the age at marriage combined with an increase of 10 to 15 per cent in the proportion of people remaining single. The average age at marriage rose to 28 and more than a fourth of Irish women remained unmarried at age 45. In other countries, however, such social changes have had either insignificant or favorable effects on the birth rate. In these countries—England, Wales, Scotland, Scandinavia, the Low Countries, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, and France—the birth rate went down because of the practice of contraception among married couples. It is certain that there was no decline in the reproductive capacity; in fact, with improved health, the contrary is likely.

Only a minor fraction of the decline in western European fertility can be ascribed to the invention of modern techniques of contraception. In the first place, very substantial declines in some European countries antedated the invention and mass manufacture of contraceptive devices. Second, we know from surveys that as recently as just

before World War II more than half of the couples in Great Britain practicing birth control were practicing withdrawal, or coitus interruptus. There is similar direct evidence for other European countries.

In this instance, the decline in fertility was not the result of technical innovations in contraception, but of the decision of married couples to resort to folk methods known for centuries. Thus we must explain the decline in the western European birth rates in terms of why people were willing to modify their sexual behavior in order to have fewer children. Such changes in attitude were doubtless a part of a whole set of profound social and economic changes that accompanied the industrialization and modernization of western Europe. Among the factors underlying this particular change in attitude was a change in the economic consequences of childbearing. In a pre-industrial, agrarian society children start helping with chores at an early age; they do not remain in a dependent status during a long period of education. They provide the principal form of support for the parents in their old age, and, with high mortality, many children must be born to ensure that some will survive to take care of their parents. On the other hand, in an urban, industrialized society, children are less of an economic asset and more of an economic burden.

Among the social factors that might account for the change in attitude is the decline in the importance of the family as an economic unit that has accompanied the industrialization and modernization of Europe. In an industrialized economy, the family is no longer the unit of production and individuals come to be judged by what they do rather than who they are. Children leave home to seek jobs and parents no longer count on support by their children in their old age. As this kind of modernization continues, public education, which is essential to the production of a literate labor force, is extended to women, and thus the traditional subordinate role of women is modified. Since the burden of child care falls primarily on women, their rise in status is probably an important element in the development of an attitude favoring the deliberate limitation of family size. Finally, the social and economic changes characteristic of industrialization and modernization of a country are accompanied by and reinforce a rise of secularism, pragmatism, and rationalism in place of custom and tradition. Since modernization of a nation involves extension of deliberate human control over an increasing range of the environment,

it is not surprising that people living in an economy undergoing industrialization should extend the notion of deliberate and rational control to the question of whether or not birth should result from their sexual activities.

As the simplified representation in Figure 1 indicates, the birth rate in western Europe usually began its descent after the death rate had already fallen substantially. (France is a partial exception. The decline in French births began late in the 18th century and the downward courses of the birth and death rates during the 19th century were more or less parallel.) In general, the death rate appears to be affected more immediately and automatically by industrialization. One may surmise that the birth rate responds more slowly because its reduction requires changes in more deeply seated customs. There is in most societies a consensus in favor of improving health and reducing the incidence of premature death. There is no such consensus for changes in attitudes and behavior needed to reduce the birth rate.

DECLINING FERTILITY AND MORTALITY IN OTHER INDUSTRIALIZED AREAS

The pattern of declining mortality and fertility that we have described for western Europe fits not only the western European countries upon which it is based but also, with suitable adjustment in the initial birth and death rates and in the time scale, eastern and southern Europe (with the exception of Albania), the Soviet Union, Japan, the United States, Australia, Canada, Argentina, and New Zealand. In short, every country that has changed from a predominantly rural agrarian society to a predominantly industrial urban society and has extended public education to near-universality, at least at the primary school level, has had a major reduction in birth and death rates of the sort depicted in Figure 1 .

The jagged line describing the variable current birth rate represents in some instances—notably the United States—a major recovery in the birth rate from its low point. It must be remembered, however, that this recovery has not been caused by a reversion to uncontrolled family size. In the United States, for example, one can scarcely imagine that married couples have forgotten how to employ the contraceptive

techniques that reduced the birth rates to a level of mere replacement just before World War II. We know, in fact, that more couples are skilled in the use of contraception today than ever before. (Nevertheless, effective methods of controlling family size are still unknown and unused by many couples even in the United States.) The recent increase in the birth rate has been the result largely of earlier and more nearly universal marriage, the virtual disappearance of childless and one-child families, and a voluntary choice of two, three, or four children by a vast majority of American couples. There has been no general return to the very large family of pre-industrial times, although some segments of our society still produce many unwanted children.

POPULATION TRENDS IN LESS-DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

We turn now to a comparison of the present situation in the less-developed areas with the demographic circumstances in western Europe prior to the industrial revolution. Figure 2 presents the trends of birth and death rates in the less-developed areas in a rough schematic way similar to that employed in Figure 1 . There are several important differences between the circumstances in today’s less-developed areas and those in pre-industrial Europe. Note first that the birth rate in the less-developed areas is higher than it was in pre-industrial western Europe. This difference results from the fact that in many less-developed countries almost all women at age 35 have married, and at an average age substantially less than in 18th-century Europe. Second, many of the less-developed areas of the world today are much more densely populated than was western Europe at the beginning of the industrial revolution. Moreover, there are few remaining areas comparable to North and South America into which a growing population could move and which could provide rapidly expanding markets. Finally, and most significantly, the death rate in the less-developed areas is dropping very rapidly—a decline that looks almost vertical compared to the gradual decline in western Europe—and without regard to economic change.

The precipitous decline in the death rate that is occurring in the low-income countries of the world is a consequence of the development and application of low-cost public health techniques. Unlike

Figure 2 . Schematic presentation of birth and death rates in less-developed countries, mid-20th century. (The steep drop in the death rate from approximately 35 per thousand began at times varying roughly between 1940 and 1960 from country to country.)

the countries of western Europe, the less-developed areas have not had to wait for the slow gradual development of medical science, nor have they had to await the possibly more rapid but still difficult process of constructing major sanitary engineering works and the build-up of a large inventory of expensive hospitals, public health

services, and highly trained doctors. Instead, the less-developed areas have been able to import low-cost measures of controlling disease, measures developed for the most part in the highly industrialized countries. The use of residual insecticides to provide effective protection against malaria at a cost of no more than 25 cents per capita per annum is an outstanding example. Other innovations include antibiotics and chemotherapy, and low-cost ways of providing safe water supplies and adequate environmental sanitation in villages that in most other ways remain relatively untouched by modernization. The death rate in Ceylon was cut in half in less than a decade, and declines approaching this in rapidity are almost commonplace.

The result of a precipitous decline in mortality while the birth rate remains essentially unchanged is, of course, a very rapid acceleration in population growth, reaching rates of three to three and one-half per cent. Mexico’s population, for example, has grown in recent years at a rate of approximately three and one-half per cent a year. This extreme rate is undoubtedly due to temporary factors and would stabilize at not more than three per cent. But even at three per cent per year, two centuries would see the population of Mexico grow to about 13.5 billion people. Two centuries is a long time, however. Might we not expect that long before 200 years had passed the population of Mexico would have responded to modernization, as did the populations of western Europe, by reducing the birth rate? A positive answer might suggest that organized educational efforts to reduce the birth rate are not necessary. But there is a more immediate problem demanding solution in much less than two centuries: Is the current demographic situation in the less-developed countries impeding the process of modernization itself? If so, a course of action that would directly accelerate the decline in fertility becomes an important part of the whole development effort which is directed toward improving the quality of each individual’s life.

POPULATION TRENDS AND THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF PRE-INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES

The combination of high birth rates and low or rapidly declining death rates now found in the less-developed countries implies two different characteristics of the population that have important impli-

cations for the pace of their economic development. One important characteristic is rapid growth, which is the immediate consequence of the large and often growing difference between birth and death rates; the other is the heavy burden of child dependency which results from a high birth rate whether death rates are high or low. A reduced death rate has only a slight effect on the proportion of children in the population, and this effect is in a rather surprising direction. The kinds of mortality reduction that have actually occurred in the world have the effect, if fertility remains unchanged, of reducing rather than increasing the average age of the population.

Mortality reduction produces this effect because the largest increases occur in the survival of infants, and, although the reduction in mortality increases the number of old persons, it increases the number of children even more. The result is that the high fertility found in low-income countries produces a proportion of children under fifteen of 40 to 45 per cent of the total population, compared to 25 per cent or less in most of the industrialized countries.

What do these characteristics of rapid growth and very large proportions of children imply about the capacity to achieve rapid industrialization? It must be noted that it is probably technically possible in every less-developed area to increase national output at rates even more rapid than the very rapid rates of population increase we have discussed, at least for a few years. The reason at least slight increases in per capita income appear feasible is that the low-income countries can import industrial and agricultural technology as well as medical technology. Briefly, the realistic question in the short run does not seem to be whether some increases in per capita income are possible while the population grows rapidly, but rather whether rapid population growth is a major deterrent to a rapid and continuing increase in per capita income.

A specific example will clarify this point. If the birth rate in India is not reduced, its population will probably double in the next 25 or 30 years, increasing from about 450 million to about 900 million. Agricultural experts consider it feasible within achievable limits of capital investment to accomplish a doubling of Indian agricultural output within the next 20 to 25 years. In the same period the output of the non-agricultural part of the Indian economy probably would be slightly more than doubled if the birth rate remained unchanged.

For a generation at least, then, India’s economic output probably can stay ahead of its maximum rate of population increase. This bare excess over the increase in population, however, is scarcely a satisfactory outcome of India’s struggle to achieve economic betterment. The real question is: Could India and the other less-developed areas of the world do substantially better if their birth rates and thus their population growth rates were reduced? Economic analysis clearly indicates that the answer is yes. Any growth of population adds to the rate of increase of national output that must be achieved in order to increase per capita output by any given amount.

To double per capita output in 30 years requires an annual increase in per capita output of 2.3 per cent; if population growth is three per cent a year, then the annual increase in national output must be raised to 5.3 per cent to achieve the desired level of economic growth. In either instance an economy, to grow, must divert effort and resources from producing for current consumption to the enhancement of future productivity. In other words, to grow faster an economy must raise its level of net investment. Net investment is investment in factories, roads, irrigation networks, and fertilizer plants, and also in education and training. The low-income countries find it difficult to mobilize resources for these purposes for three reasons: The pressure to use all available resources for current consumption is great; rapid population growth adds very substantially to the investment targets that must be met to achieve any given rate of increase in material well-being; and the very high proportions of children that result from high fertility demand that a larger portion of national output must be used to support a very large number of non-earning dependents. These dependents create pressure to produce for immediate consumption only. In individual terms, the family with a large number of children finds it more difficult to save, and a government that tries to finance development expenditures out of taxes can expect less support from a population with many children. Moreover, rapid population growth and a heavy burden of child dependency divert investment funds to less productive uses—that is, less productive in the long run. To achieve a given level of literacy in a population much more must be spent on schools. In an expanding population of large families, construction effort must go into housing rather than into factories or power plants.

Thus the combination of continued high fertility and greatly reduced mortality in the less-developed countries raises the levels of investment required while impairing the capacity of the economy to achieve high levels of investment. Economists have estimated that a gradual reduction in the rate of childbearing, totaling 50 per cent in 30 years, would add about 40 per cent to the income per consumer that could be achieved by the end of that time.

To recapitulate, a short-term increase in per capita income may be possible in most less-developed areas, even if the fertility rate is not reduced. Nevertheless, even in the short run, progress will be much faster and more certain if the birth rate falls. In the longer run, economic progress will eventually be stopped and reversed unless the birth rate declines or the death rate increases. Economic progress will be slower and more doubtful if less-developed areas wait for the supposedly inevitable impact of modernization on the birth rate. They run the risk that rapid population growth and adverse age distribution would themselves prevent the achievement of the very modernization they count on to bring the birth rate down.

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Home / Essay Samples / Environment / Environment Problems / World Problems

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